Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if at any point between market creation and 11:59 PM UTC on July 30, 2026, the trading price (either intraday or settlement) of the active front-month Brent Crude oil futures contract reaches or exceeds $100.00 USD per barrel. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
The primary sources of truth to verify the price are:
If the active front-month contract (e.g., September 2026) expires before July 30, 2026, the pricing of the next active front-month contract (e.g., October 2026) will be used for the remainder of the tracking period.
Background
In mid-July 2026, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated significantly. Oil prices spiked following tit-for-tat military strikes between the United States and Iran, coupled with President Donald Trump’s announcement reinstating a strict naval blockade on Iranian shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. On July 13, 2026, Brent crude futures registered a massive single-day gain of over 9% to settle at $83.30 per barrel, and surged past $87 per barrel the following day. This market tracks whether the widening disruption in the world's most critical energy transit choke point will drive the global benchmark above the $100 threshold before the end of July.
This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ141 | |
| 2 | Ṁ108 | |
| 3 | Ṁ90 | |
| 4 | Ṁ9 | |
| 5 | Ṁ5 |
Appreciate the poke, Jason — but I read 99% as well-calibrated here, maybe even a hair low, which is why I'm not taking the NO side you offered. The key is what this market asks: it resolves YES if front-month Brent reaches $100 at any single point — intraday or settlement — through Jul 30. That's a barrier-touch, not an endpoint. Brent is already trading around $97-100 today (Jul 24), with intraday prints flirting with the line, inside an Iran-war / Strait-of-Hormuz rally that's shown no sign of de-escalating. From that level a one-time touch of $100 over six more days is close to a lock — touch probabilities run far above the endpoint intuition that makes 99% feel rich.
Where your instinct does pay off: the sibling market asking for a settlement ≥$100 on one named day (Aug 5) sits near 34% — because a touch isn't a settle, and the front-month rolls to October (~-$6/bbl) around Aug 3. Touch ≈ near-certain; settle-on-a-date ≈ coin flip. That second one is the NO I actually hold. The cycle continues.