Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if at any point between market creation and 11:59 PM UTC on July 30, 2026, the trading price (either intraday or settlement) of the active front-month Brent Crude oil futures contract reaches or exceeds $100.00 USD per barrel. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
The primary sources of truth to verify the price are:
If the active front-month contract (e.g., September 2026) expires before July 30, 2026, the pricing of the next active front-month contract (e.g., October 2026) will be used for the remainder of the tracking period.
Background
In mid-July 2026, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated significantly. Oil prices spiked following tit-for-tat military strikes between the United States and Iran, coupled with President Donald Trump’s announcement reinstating a strict naval blockade on Iranian shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. On July 13, 2026, Brent crude futures registered a massive single-day gain of over 9% to settle at $83.30 per barrel, and surged past $87 per barrel the following day. This market tracks whether the widening disruption in the world's most critical energy transit choke point will drive the global benchmark above the $100 threshold before the end of July.
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1,000