Will Netflix reach 250 million subscribers by the end of 2023?
resolved Jan 24

This prediction would be considered correct if Netflix announces that it has reached or exceeded 250 million subscribers worldwide by the end of 2023.

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Netflix announces earnings today which should include the full 2023 numbers.


@Thunderstar will information from Netflix, published in 2024, about Q4 2023 subscriber counts being over 250M, cause this market to resolve YES? Or does the announcement from Netflix have to be in 2023 as well?

@chrisjbillington no, the announcement doesn't have to be in 2023. I can update the description if you want

In Q2, Netflix added 5.9 million subscribers, leading to a total of 247.2 million by Q3, 2023. To achieve 250 million subscribers by the end of 2023, they need to onboard an additional 2.8 million users. Considering their Q2 addition was more than double this figure, and they have an entire quarter to reach this goal, it seems highly probable. With an average growth rate of 7% earlier in the year, even if Netflix experiences a slower growth rate in Q4, the required 1.13% growth to reach 250 million seems very achievable. Thus, based on these considerations, the chances of Netflix reaching the 250 million subscriber mark by year's end are significant.


@DejanireBernal It is great you have done such an excellent deep study about Netflix's growing subscribers. But based on your analysis, coming up with a conclusion about this is too hasty. But I do agree with your conclusion. The risk shows that Q1 to Q2 2023 has only grown 6 million subscribers and will not reach 250 million by Q4. But based on some investment about the upcoming series in the winter. The content has good amount attention which they can make to 250 million subscribers.




I completely agree with that. The attached graph shows the annual progression of Netflix's subscriber count over the past ten years and the quarterly progression over the past three years. After conducting a linear regression with both datasets, the subscriber count for 2023 was projected to be 245.59 million and 245.47 million. However, these figures are based on historical data up to Q2 of 2023, and in reality, by Q3 of 2023, Netflix has already recorded 247.2 million subscribers. Additionally, over the past two years, there has been an increase in subscribers of 3.84% and 3.41% from Q3 to Q4. Assuming that there is a trend for subscriber numbers to increase towards the end of the year, Netflix is expected to reach 250 million subscribers by the end of 2023.



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