There is currently an outbreak of pneumonia among chinese children. See, for example, here: https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/mysterious-pneumonia-outbreak-china-hospitals-sick-children-b1122117.html
Thi sounds worringly similar to Covid (but also dissimilar in some ways). I wonder if this will be a global phenomenon.
As of December 31st 2023, will this mystery pneumonia spread beyond China in a significant way? I will resolve this question as yes if more than 1000 confirmed or highly likely confirmed cases exist (or have existed between now and then) outside of China on the resolution day.
EDIT from Dec 5 for clarification, as requested in the comments:
This market specifically concerns a mysterious pathogen, like covid would have been in its early days. This market does not concern existing viruses such as RSV, because that is hardly mysterious.
I understand that the "mysterious" pathogen may be a mutation of an existing pathogen (like covid was). This obviously counts, if there has been a substantial mutation (like covid was). Minor mutations (like the constant minor changes to the seasonal flu) dont count. For example, let's assume that the "mystery pneumonia" is an RSV outbreak. That would not count, unless it turns out to be a novel Super-RSV with substantially higher mortality/infectiousness/whatever,
Also, this question pertains to the specific mystery pneumonia observed in China, wherever it may be from. Only this one counts. If this pathogen is originally from a different country and spreads from there, it counts because its still the pathogen that this question is about. If it turns out that there is a second mystery pneumonia that has nothing to do with the current outbreak in China but still spreads globally, it does not count (because this question is about the present outbreak in China).
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ3,848 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1,427 | |
| 3 | Ṁ337 | |
| 4 | Ṁ177 | |
| 5 | Ṁ144 |
@ChristianJacques Criteria do include this:
As of December 31st 2023, will this mystery pneumonia spread beyond China in a significant way?
So a question about the future would ideally be a separate market, as traders here have already factored in this shorter timeframe.
@dph121 The market will resolve NO if they just caught the flu or something like that.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/white-lung-pneumonia-us-china-outbreak-q67spw590
More than 140 reported
@marketwise this is not a repeat of COVID. Seasonal outbreaks of existing respiratory diseases are unfortunately normal.
And for a few years after a "skipped" season or two - like we had during the pandemic due to restrictions and behavioural changes significantly reducing the spread of existing respiratory viruses - you can get alternating smaller and larger than usual seasonal outbreaks, due to the dynamics of immunity.
This is almost certainly what we're seeing, independently in different countries.
"We do not think this is a novel/new respiratory disease but rather a large uptick in the number of pneumonia cases normally seen at one time," a statement from the department said.
A link between these pneumonias, such as a common thread or a definitive etiology, has not been found.
@ThomasTwenhoven some people in the comment section are interested in clarification about this question.
The resolution criteria here seem unclear. If the children getting sick in China have some novel virus, then it's clear we're voting on 1,000+ people outside of China getting that virus.
But if the children are getting known diseases like RSV, flu, and bacterial pneumonia, are we betting that there will be > 1,000 children outside of China with those known diseases?
@PeterMillerc030 Doesn't the criteria say that the disease has to spread from China to some other place? So whatever it is, you need to be able to attribute those 1000 non-China cases to the current cluster in China. At least that's my reading.
@Eliza It says "spread beyond China in a significant way", unclear if it has to spread from China.
My first impulse was to bet no since it's almost certainly not a novel pathogen. But resolution here isn't obvious in that case. Like, there's a video on Twitter of sick kids in Vietnam. If confirmed to be the same pathogen (but not a novel one), is that "spread beyond China"?
@PeterMillerc030 Thanks for catching this inaccuracy! And my apologies for leaving the inaccuracy there in the first place.
This market specifically concerns a mysterious pathogen, like covid would have been in its early days. This market does not concern existing viruses such as RSV, because that is hardly mysterious.
Regular RSV alone apparently has an annual incidence of something like 50 cases per 1000 children under the age of 1. That obviously translates to more than 1000 cases in the designated period. Including such viruses would render the question moot. Therefore, these common viruses are not included.
I understand that the "mysterious" pathogen may be a mutation of an existing pathogen (like covid was). This obviously counts, if there has been a substantial mutation (like covid was). Minor mutations (like the constant minor changes to the seasonal flu) dont count. For example, let's assume that the "mystery pneumonia" is an RSV outbreak. That would not count, unless it turns out to be a novel Super-RSV with substantially higher mortality/infectiousness/whatever,
Also, this question pertains to the specific mystery pneumonia observed in China, wherever it may be from. Only this one counts. If this pathogen is originally from a different country and spreads from there, it counts because its still the pathogen that this question is about. If it turns out that there is a second mystery pneumonia that has nothing to do with the current outbreak in China but still spreads globally, it does not count (because this question is about the present outbreak in China).
I hope that this answers your question and I will monitor my account more closely in the next few days to make sure I can respond to further questions more quickly.
@ThomasTwenhoven Thank you for the very detailed reply. I think you should add some of that to the description above so new participants can find it.