Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pope Francis publicly delivers the "Urbi et Orbi" blessing on Easter Sunday, April 20, 2025. The blessing is traditionally given from the central loggia of St. Peter's Basilica. If the Pope does not deliver the blessing publicly, the market will resolve to "No."

Background:

The "Urbi et Orbi" (Latin for "to the city and the world") is a solemn papal blessing traditionally delivered by the Pope on Easter Sunday and Christmas Day. It is typically given from the central balcony of St. Peter's Basilica and addresses both the city of Rome and the global community.

As of April 17, 2025, Pope Francis, aged 88, is recovering from a severe case of double pneumonia. He has been advised to rest for two months, leading to uncertainty about his participation in the upcoming Easter ceremonies, including the "Urbi et Orbi" blessing. In recent weeks, he has made limited public appearances, such as greeting the faithful in St. Peter's Square on Palm Sunday. Vatican officials have indicated that his involvement in Easter events will be determined based on his health at the time. (reuters.com)

Considerations:

Given Pope Francis's recent health challenges and the Vatican's cautious approach to his public engagements, there is a possibility that he may delegate the "Urbi et Orbi" blessing to another clergy member or deliver it in a modified format. Traders should monitor official Vatican announcements and news sources for updates on the Pope's health and scheduled appearances as Easter approaches.

Pope Francis's Health and Easter Participation:

• Vatican's solemn run-up to Easter opens with recovering Pope Francis improving but on the sidelines

• Convalescing Pope Francis opens Holy Week with in-person greeting in St. Peter's Square

• Catholics prepare for an unusual Easter, with Pope Francis out of view

• Update 2025-04-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): **- A live video broadcast of the blessing will be considered valid.

  • The blessing must be delivered in front of a group of people as if it were an in-person event.

  • Pre-recorded videos will not count.**