This market resolves positively if Meta leadership announces layoffs of >=5% of workforce. Layoffs must be announced, but do not need to be carried out within this timeframe. If more than one layoff is announced such that each layoff is less than 5%, but together they comprise more than 5%, this DOES fulfill the condition.
1,000
3.00I think any remaining definitional doubt on resolution criteria should be gone with this post from Zuck, which "announces" the layoffs that have now happened:
This by itself satisfies the market condition of 5 percent (and exceeds it even further when combined with last month's recruiter layoff) https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/apr/19/meta-layoffs-facebook-cuts-workers
Meta is expected to conduct another mass round of layoffs on Wednesday, several sources working at the company told Vox.
The cuts could be in the range of 4,000 jobs, one source said.
In March Meta announced a three phased round of layoffs resulting in 10k let go. After the March announcement about 1500 recruiters were laid off as part of the first phase. The April ("tech") portion of the layoff, the second phase of the layoffs announced in March, is likely well before the 30th as it will likely be announced on a Wednesday. If the April announcement impacts at least ~2,500 then that should satisfy this market. I expect that the April announcement will affect at least another 3 or 4k people, and then the third phase in May will bring the cumulative number to 10,000 employees let go. Hence I believe the April layoffs taking effect will, together with the previous March round of layoffs that impacted recruiters, exceed 5 percent and resolve this market favorably.
@MichaelZoorob Unfortunately the biggest leap there is that this market will be resolved fairly, given it wasn't even resolved with the first announcement. See the comment thread below.
@JacyAnthis I hear you - though I think there's some good-faith ambiguity about whether the March statement constituted "announcing layoffs." If the interpretation of announcing layoffs is instead "the people who are going to lose their jobs are told they are going to lose their jobs", then Meta "only" announced that 1500 recruiters (like 2% of employees) were laid off in March. The April equivalent announcement for "tech" should bring the cumulative share laid off above 5%.
This should be resolved as YES by now, right? The resolution criteria has been met. E.g., https://www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/news/facebook-parent-meta-plans-to-lay-off-another-10000-employees/
@JacyAnthis exactly but the market maker bought no just a few hrs ago- idk if there's been a new announcement but the old announcement satisfied the criteria.
@firstuserhere I'm always unsure how much to invest in such markets because of the risk of incorrect resolution...
@JacyAnthis This is not sufficient for resolution of the market.
https://about.fb.com/news/2023/03/mark-zuckerberg-meta-year-of-efficiency/
"We will let recruiting team members know tomorrow whether they’re impacted. We expect to announce restructurings and layoffs in our tech groups in late April, and then our business groups in late May." [emp. mine]
This is a notification of a timeline for future layoffs announcements to come, not a layoff announcement in itself. The actual layoff announcements that happen prior to 4/30 may or may not comprise 5% of the workforce.
@TheSkeward that's a very weird interpretation. The exact quote from Zuckerberg, the CEO, is "Overall, we expect to reduce our team size by around 10,000 people and to close around 5,000 additional open roles that we haven't yet hired." It seems extremely counterintuitive not to categorize that as "announces layoffs." Numerous media outlets reported it as announcing layoffs, and I think people should hesitate to bet on this market, especially given your own bet on NO despite it having—as apparent from this—fuzzy resolution criteria.
@TheSkeward Is there a meaningful difference between an announcement and an announcement of what a future announcement will contain? Either way the same information is being disseminated.
@firstuserhere they announced it and as market description says, it doesn't have to be carrier out in this timeframe