Just to be clear, him dying doesn't resolve YES?

@Kraalnaxx Nope.

Lot of free money on the table with this question. Free arb here, and I really don’t think Biden resigns to help Kamala since she’s trying to run as an outsider.

Why would Biden resign? He's already a lame duck. What's the point of making Kamala an incumbent? One of the main GOP strategies is to position Kamala as an incumbent, why would the dems play right into that line?

Kamala's polls will continue to decline with mounting pressure on her to speak to the press and release policies, so the dems in early october will have biden resign so that the public will be distracted and she will be able to give an excuse of "acclimating to the job"

This seems very unlikely

didn't realize we were in the "using autocomplete to make political predictions" part of the cycle.

Six words in and you can already completely discard this comment. "Polls will continue to decline"? So far, Kamala's polling has done nothing but increase. You're not living in reality.

@GregMister Kamala's polling has been mostly increasing since she jumped in the race. Now she's up to what, D+3.5 or something? All this does is convince me that YES traders are completely out of touch with reality and I shouldn't take the 12% yes probability seriously as an update.

@JS_81 I'm talking about a future trend, not a current one

@GregMister then you misused the phrase "continue to"

@LukasTilmann you must have missed the word "will"

@GregMister What? "Will" implies that decreases will happen in the future, "continue to" implies that they have already been happening in the past. You made two statements, one about the past and present, and one about the future. The one about the future I didn't dispute because I can't see into the future, but the one about the past and present I did dispute, because I can look at a chart.

@LukasTilmann will modifies the phrase "continue to decrease" as in in the future, there will be a point that her polls will continue to decrease. Does that explanation make you less confused and angry?

@GregMister No. I was never angry and I was never confused. I just continue to think that you are not in full command of the English language. If you think that there will be some point in the future where her polls decrease, there's no point in using the word continue here, and using the word "will" does not imply that the start of the polling decrease must be in the future as well, as something happening in the present can continue in the future. Therefore, there's one clear interpretation of the phrase "will continue to" - it's happening now and it will continue to happen.

@LukasTilmann >non-native english speaker

quoth one of the few people who predicted Biden wouldn't be the nominee:
https://x.com/VivekGRamaswamy/status/1824881977620840604

Does he think this will happen before or after Michelle Obama becomes nominee and we discover that 9/11 was an inside job?

More like a broken calendar than a broken clock: right once a year or less.

It took a lot of convincing to get Biden to give up his campaign for a second term. I doubt he's going to give up the last few months of the only term he got.

Yeah, but what was the reason he let himself be convinced? I.e. is his health deteriorating?

If so, he'll just go out another way. He won't voluntarily quit, like only Nixon before him did.

Reportedly he got polls that showed he had zero chance of winning the Saturday before he dropped out.

@Gen We ride with the bide

Does this resolve to yes if they 25th amendment or he passes away?

That wouldn't be a resignation