50 on yes, because I keep underestimating "the absurd thing happens"

@JoshuaPhillipsLivingReaso the "nothing ever happens" gang in hypothetical shambles.

Who buys YES

@beaver1 Funniest outcome is the most likely. Kamala WILL be the first woman president (for two weeks)

@nikstar you have a sense of humor of a coping redditor

He wants to give Kamala a chance to be president because she'll never get it again.

@Riley12 Show us the mana

@VandelayIndustries in at 1% w sweepcash

@FlipPidot What happened to your old comments? I wanted to ask for an update on your thinking!

@DavidFWatson Are my old comments gone?

My thinking is that the time value is dwindling fast here!

That said, I've been selling a lot lately, not because I think it's too highly priced, but to free up Mana to boost other markets.

@FlipPidot 😆 I'm selling my NO for the same reason

If Biden is hospitalised or similar and without resigning is instead removed as unfit/incapable does this resolve no not resigned?

This looks different from finish first term market so another reason it isn't a perfect arbitrage.

Unfortunately not enough scope to sell at 6% here and 94% there.

Just to be clear, him dying doesn't resolve YES?

@Kraalnaxx Nope.

@Predictor Sorry, does that mean him dying would resolve YES?

@Kraalnaxx That is an interesting interpretation.

@Predictor I'm just trying to clarify what you meant, because I realized I might have misunderstood before lol. Yes or no, Joe Biden dying would resolve this market to YES.

@Kraalnaxx A dead president can hardly resign, can he?

@Kraalnaxx No, yeah, for sure I get it. I will get the question updated to reflect resolution.

Lot of free money on the table with this question. Free arb here, and I really don’t think Biden resigns to help Kamala since she’s trying to run as an outsider.

Why would Biden resign? He's already a lame duck. What's the point of making Kamala an incumbent? One of the main GOP strategies is to position Kamala as an incumbent, why would the dems play right into that line?

@JS_81 I think they’ll keep him in the position regardless but the most likely reason he would resign would be the same reason he dropped out: aging related health problems and decline. It need not be a grand political strategy if he has some sort of major incident which captures the national conversation for a while, particularly post-election.

I agree it's unlikely to happen before November 5th unless Biden has a health crisis. But afterward, if Harris loses, Biden might be persuaded to let her have a month as the lame-duck president for the sake of historical firsts. And if she wins, Biden might decide he's exhausted by the job anyway.