China has/already had access to GPT-4 weights; proof before 2025
Plus
15
Ṁ3567resolved Jan 9
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market predicts whether Chinese entities will gain access or already has access to GPT-4's model weights. Access would be confirmed through official statements or credible news sources indicating that Chinese entities have obtained the weights. A credible source is determined by whether or not it can be confirmed by another source.
Resolution criteria: Market resolves YES if there are credible reports or official statements confirming Chinese access to GPT-4 weights before December 31, 2024. Otherwise resolves NO.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ234 | |
| 2 | Ṁ228 | |
| 3 | Ṁ200 | |
| 4 | Ṁ25 | |
| 5 | Ṁ15 |
Related questions
Related questions
China steals GPT-5
25% chance
Will a state actor or other group succeed at stealing GPT-4 model weights by the end of 2026?
20% chance
China will make a LLM approximately as good or better than GPT4 before 2025
89% chance
When will the weights of GPT-4 be publicly available (leaked or open sourced)?
Will GPT-5 come out before 2027?
87% chance
When will GPT-5 be released? (2025)
89% chance
Will GPT-5 be released before Apr 2025?
6% chance
Will China recreate GPT-4o by EOY 2024?
9% chance
Has GPT-4's weights leaked on the deep or dark web already?
9% chance
Will OpenAI provide access to GPT-4 weights to academic researchers not affiliated with OpenAI, by 2025?
8% chance