China steals GPT-5 | Manifold

China steals GPT-5

22

1kṀ1530

2031

25%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that the Chinese State has exfiltrated the weights to GPT-5 before January 1st 2031.

If there is only weak evidence that this has occurred, then this question resolves as N/A. If there is no evidence then this question resolves as NO.

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https://x.com/billyperrigo/status/1914665994297004252

filled a Ṁ30 NO at 20% order

Given how things are going at this rate, unclear that they will need to do this at all

https://x.com/webdevMason/status/1862606162681905166

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