China steals GPT-5 | Manifold

China steals GPT-5

Plus

14

Ṁ453

2031

25%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that the Chinese State has exfiltrated the weights to GPT-5 before January 1st 2031.

If there is only weak evidence that this has occurred, then this question resolves as N/A. If there is no evidence then this question resolves as NO.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇨🇳 China

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filled a Ṁ30 NO at 20% order

Given how things are going at this rate, unclear that they will need to do this at all

https://x.com/webdevMason/status/1862606162681905166

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What hardware will GPT-5 be trained on?

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GPT-5 released to the public by May 30, 2025?

GPT-5 capabilities at launch - make your predictions

Which Benchmarks will GPT-5 be benchmarked against, when it is announced?

Will GPT-5 be released before Dec 2025?

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