China steals GPT-5
18
1kṀ10402031
40%
chance
6
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that the Chinese State has exfiltrated the weights to GPT-5 before January 1st 2031.
If there is only weak evidence that this has occurred, then this question resolves as N/A. If there is no evidence then this question resolves as NO.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
People are also trading
Related questions
What will be true about GPT-5?
China will make a LLM approximately as good or better than GPT4 before 2025
89% chance
Will China recreate GPT-4o by EOY 2024?
9% chance
GPT 5 Exceeds Expectations
39% chance
GPT-5 released to the public by May 30, 2025?
1% chance
When will GPT-5 be released? (2025)
85% chance
What hardware will GPT-5 be trained on?
GPT-5 releases when?
When will GPT 5 be released
When GPT-5 will released?