On the Lex Fridman Podcast #419 with Sam Altman, Sam raises the possibility that someone might shoot him...
https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxBOnYhHZ754sxayJgkdbw_6YwGUnbwxjy?feature=shared
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LEX: that's one of the security threats for nuclear fission is humans seem to be really afraid of it and that's something we have to incorporate into the calculus of it so we have to kind of win people over and to show how safe it is
SAM: I worry about that for AI. I think some things are going to go theatrically wrong with AI. I don't know what the percent chance is that I eventually get shot but it's not zero.
LEX: oh, like 'we want to stop this'...
SAM: maybe.
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This market will resolve based on publicly available media reporting by market close. If there are reliable media reports that someone shot at Sam, then it resolves to 'NO'. Absence of such reports resolves to 'YES".
Threshold for 'NO' would be any shot fired at Sam...including a miss (which would be the hoped for result, conditional on a shot being fired!)
Special Note: This seems like a fair and potentially helpful use of a prediction market, given that Sam raised the question publicly and could potentially benefit from information revealed by market odds. As an added check, I have asked the Community Manager for feedback and will immediately resolve to N/A if requested.