Will the Supreme Court uphold the Ninth Circuit's judgment that California Proposition 12 doesn't violate the Commerce Clause?
46%
chance
The National Pork Producers Council & American Farm Bureau Federation is challenging California's Proposition 12, which limits pork sales in the state unless the pig was raised in certain humane conditions, in the Supreme Court. Petition: https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/21/21-468/193744/20210927102549231_NPPC%20v%20Ross%20Petition%20for%20Cert%20PDFA.pdf News article on the matter: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/supreme-court-agrees-consider-law-regulating-pigs-are-raised-rcna20665 This resolves YES if Prop 12 is found to be constitutional in this case, and NO if it's found to be unconstitutional in this case.
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Tetraspaceis predicting YES at 32%

This market is approximately 100% - this market, I think.

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Tetraspaceis predicting YES at 45%
Benthamite avatar
Benthamitebought Ṁ5 of NO

The Supreme Court reverses 80% of decisions on average, implying a base rate ~20% chance this is upheld

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Tetraspace

Ballotpedia article: https://ballotpedia.org/National_Pork_Producers_Council_v._Ross

Case is scheduled for October 11th 2022.