Will the Supreme Court uphold the Ninth Circuit's judgment that California Proposition 12 doesn't violate the Commerce Clause? | Manifold Markets

closes Apr 4

SCOTUS Law & Order

Will the Supreme Court uphold the Ninth Circuit's judgment that California Proposition 12 doesn't violate the Commerce Clause?

46%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

The National Pork Producers Council & American Farm Bureau Federation is challenging California's Proposition 12, which limits pork sales in the state unless the pig was raised in certain humane conditions, in the Supreme Court. Petition: https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/21/21-468/193744/20210927102549231_NPPC%20v%20Ross%20Petition%20for%20Cert%20PDFA.pdf News article on the matter: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/supreme-court-agrees-consider-law-regulating-pigs-are-raised-rcna20665 This resolves YES if Prop 12 is found to be constitutional in this case, and NO if it's found to be unconstitutional in this case.

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Tetraspaceis predicting YES at 32%

This market is approximately 100% - this market, I think.

Tetraspaceis predicting YES at 45%

Wikipedia article on the case: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Pork_Producers_Council_v._Ross

Benthamitebought Ṁ5 of NO

The Supreme Court reverses 80% of decisions on average, implying a base rate ~20% chance this is upheld

Ballotpedia article: https://ballotpedia.org/National_Pork_Producers_Council_v._Ross

Case is scheduled for October 11th 2022.

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ4/Ṁ100 YES at 46% (cancelled)

Javi bought Ṁ70 NO from 57% to 45%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ7/Ṁ100 YES at 57% (cancelled)

Tetraspace filled limit order Ṁ136/Ṁ136 YES at 56%

N. Phil Masiakowski sold Ṁ25 NO from 29% to 32%

Jonathan Ray bought Ṁ10 YES from 27% to 29%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ5/Ṁ100 YES at 27% (cancelled)

cos sold Ṁ18 YES from 30% to 26%

octothorpe bought Ṁ4 YES from 29% to 30%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ15/Ṁ100 NO at 29% (cancelled)

octothorpe filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ20 YES at 30%

octothorpe created limit order for Ṁ20 YES at 20% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ4/Ṁ100 YES at 26% (cancelled)

Javi bought Ṁ65 NO from 31% to 25%

cos filled limit order Ṁ8/Ṁ55 NO at 31% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ12/Ṁ100 YES at 32% (cancelled)

Javi bought Ṁ200 NO from 50% to 29%

tcheasdfjkl bought Ṁ4 YES at 50%

Tetraspace bought Ṁ20 YES from 45% to 50%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ5/Ṁ12 YES at 45% (cancelled)

Mike Blume bought Ṁ20 NO from 48% to 44%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ5/Ṁ150 YES at 48% (cancelled)

Anton bought Ṁ25 NO from 53% to 47%

VelocityBot sold Ṁ1 YES from 54% to 53%

VelocityBot filled limit order Ṁ5/Ṁ5 NO at 54%

VelocityBot filled limit order Ṁ13/Ṁ120 YES at 55% (cancelled)

VelocityBot sold Ṁ7 NO from 50% to 52%

Tetraspace filled limit order Ṁ89/Ṁ89 YES at 50%

Nash Sauter bought Ṁ30 NO from 45% to 37%

Tetraspace bought Ṁ5 YES from 43% to 45%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ2/Ṁ100 YES at 43% (cancelled)

N. Phil Masiakowski bought Ṁ20 NO from 49% to 42%

cos created limit order for Ṁ21 NO at 73% (cancelled)

cos created limit order for Ṁ35 NO at 91% (cancelled)

cos filled limit order Ṁ23/Ṁ23 YES at 30%

cos created limit order for Ṁ47 YES at 12% (cancelled)

Tetraspace bought Ṁ15 YES from 41% to 49%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ1/Ṁ100 YES at 41% (cancelled)

Jean bought Ṁ20 NO from 49% to 40%

Gigacasting sold Ṁ7 NO from 45% to 49%

Gigacasting bought Ṁ10 NO from 50% to 45%

Gigacasting created limit order for Ṁ20 NO at 80%

Gigacasting created limit order for Ṁ50 NO at 90%

Gigacasting filled limit order Ṁ50/Ṁ50 NO at 50%

Gigacasting created limit order for Ṁ60 NO at 70%

Gigacasting bought Ṁ10 NO from 60% to 52%

Gigacasting bought Ṁ10 NO from 69% to 60%

VelocityBot filled limit order Ṁ7/Ṁ30 NO at 69% (cancelled)

Tetraspace sold Ṁ5 NO from 52% to 75%

Tetraspace bought Ṁ5 NO from 80% to 52%