Will at least $200,000 be granted to EA charities as a result of Project for Awesome 2022?
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Ṁ1175
resolved Feb 17
Resolved
NO

Project for Awesome is a charity fundraiser hosted by John and Hank Green in which people advocate for charities by posting videos and the charities with the most votes across their videos win grants. Every year, the Effective Altruism community coordinates around posting videos for charities chosen ahead of time. From https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/aGLiq389hAzC2g6KA/project-for-awesome-2021-was-a-success-1, the historical amounts won by EA charities is: * 2021: Likely total of $189,700. ~$27,000 for The Against Malaria Foundation, The Good Food Institute, GiveDirectly, Clean Air Task Force, The Humane League, Givewell Maximum Impact Fund, and Wild Animal Initiative. * 2020: No P4A this year - it was moved from December 2020 to February 2021. * 2019: Total of $58,804.40. At least $14,701.10 for The Against Malaria Foundation, The Good Food Institute, GiveDirectly, and Clean Air Task Force. * 2018: Total of $55,891.44. $18,630.48 for The Against Malaria Foundation, The Good Food Institute, and GiveDirectly. * 2017: Total of $39,436. $19,718 for The Against Malaria Foundation and GiveDirectly. * 2016: Total of $50,000. $25,000 for The Against Malaria Foundation and The Good Food Institute. * 2015: $25,000 for The Against Malaria Foundation. This will resolve YES if the total amount given to EA charities according to http://www.fightworldsuck.org/previous-grants/ when results for 2022 are available is greater than or equal to $200,000. The EA charities that the community is coordinating on will be some subset of Fortify Health, Animal Ethics, Fish Welfare Initiative, Rethink Priorities, Charity Entrepreneurship, The Good Food Institute, One For The World, Wild Animal Initiative, The Humane League, Against Malaria Foundation, Happier Lives Institute, Givewell, Maximum Impact Fund, Mercy For Animals, High Impact Athletes and 80,000 Hours; if another clearly EA charity (eg top recommended GiveWell charity, Animal Charity Evaluators top charity, GiveWell incubation grant recipient) seems likely to win money from Project for Awesome, I will discuss whether to count that. Jan 14, 9:13pm: #EffectiveAltruism #ProjectForAwesome

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predicted NO
Seems like only the Humane League, Against Malaria foundation and Good Food Institute won this year https://twitter.com/proj4awesome/status/1509633958874689542
This question is currently at 36%. If I were to buy 50 YES shares now, the payout would be 52 (+4%), whereas if I were to buy 100 YES shares the payout would be 100 (0% gain). What's with that? Anyway, my credence is about 75% Yes.