Who will win the 2026 by-election for Craghead and South Moor (Durham County Council)?

Question

This by-election is due to a casual vacancy caused by the resignation of Reform UK's Cllr Aaron Hillam after he moved away from County Durham.

Nominations close at 4pm on 23 October 2026; further candidates will be added once they are confirmed.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Mark Taylor (Reform), followed by Les Timbey (Labour) and Other are most likely. See the market for live updates (3 traders, as of Oct 15, 2026).

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