Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
In Project for Awesome 2023, what will the product of the amount of money granted to EA charites and the number of videos made for EA charites be? (1% = 200,000 video-dollars)
3
Ṁ10Ṁ34
resolved Apr 3
Resolved
N/A
Project for Awesome is a yearly livestream event hosted by John & Hank Green's Foundation for World Suck in which participants create short videos advocating for charities. Money raised during the second half of the livestream is granted to the charities that have achieved the most votes on the Project for Awesome website across all of their videos; in past years this has been about $20,000 each to winners. Since 2015, members of the effective altruism community have coordinated to make videos for a shortlist of charities voted on in a Facebook group ahead of time to increase the chances that those charities recieve the grant: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/aGLiq389hAzC2g6KA/project-for-awesome-2021-was-a-success-1 In 2021, 59 videos were made across the 8 charities coordinated on and $195,000 was granted, for a product of 11,446,000 video-dollars (57%). In 2022, 77 videos were made across the 10 charities coordinated on and probably around $75,000 was granted (rough guess based on there being three EA winners), for a total of maybe 5,775,000 video-dollars (~30%?). This will resolve at a % equal to the total number of videos made supporting charities coordinated on by the EA Project 4 Awesome Facebook group, multiplied by the total number of dollars granted to those EA charities by Project for Awesome, divided by 200,000.
Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:
me sowing: haha yeah i'm gonna make a weird derived statistic and then i'll be able to calculate the covariance to find the marginal impact of extra videos this is gonne be awesome me reaping: what even IS this how are you even meant to calculate it