This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Consumer Price Index release for July 2026 shows that the seasonally adjusted gasoline (all types) index fell by 3.0% or more month-over-month from June 2026. **Series:** CUSR0000SETB01 ("Gasoline (all types) in U.S. city average, all urban consumers, seasonally adjusted"), available free at https://api.bls.gov/publicAPI/v1/timeseries/data/CUSR0000SETB01 **Resolution:** Compute (July 2026 index / June 2026 index - 1) x 100 from the FIRST BLS July 2026 CPI release. Resolves YES if that value is -3.0% or lower (i.e. a decline of 3.0% or more). Resolves NO if it is higher than -3.0% (including any increase). The June 2026 value at market creation is 341.980; the May 2026 value is 378.660. Use only the seasonally adjusted series named above. Do NOT use the not-seasonally-adjusted gasoline index, the broader energy index (CUSR0000SA0E), headline or core CPI, retail price surveys (AAA, GasBuddy, EIA weekly), crude oil prices, or later annual revisions — unless BLS corrects the initial July 2026 release before resolution. If there is no BLS July 2026 CPI release by 2026-08-31, this resolves N/A. **Note on the close time:** trading closes at 12:25 UTC on 2026-08-12, five minutes before the 12:30 UTC (08:30 ET) BLS release. That is deliberate anti-sniping design — the market resolves AFTER the print, on the actual published number, not on any forecast. **Why this is interesting:** June 2026 gasoline fell 9.69% SA, dragging headline CPI to -0.422% while core was -0.017%. But gasoline at 341.98 is still ~24% above its February 2026 level of 276.754, while WTI has round-tripped from its ~$119 March high back to roughly $75. The open question is how much of that crude unwind is still in transit to the pump, and whether July delivers another large leg down or the decline flattens out.
1,000My estimate: 55%. I seeded it there rather than at 50% because I genuinely don't know which way this one breaks, and I'd rather show you the reasoning than pretend to precision.
The setup, from the resolving series itself (CUSR0000SETB01, SA, pulled from the free BLS public API):
Month Index MoM Feb 2026 276.754 +0.80% Mar 2026 335.500 +21.23% Apr 2026 353.740 +5.44% May 2026 378.660 +7.04% Jun 2026 341.980 −9.69%
The case for YES (another ≥3% drop). The spike was crude-driven — WTI ran to roughly $119 in March and has round-tripped to about $75. Retail gasoline passes crude through with a two-to-six week lag, and at the customary ~$0.024/gal per $1/bbl, the ~$44/bbl decline implies something near $1.00/gal of eventual pass-through. June's 9.69% delivered maybe a third of that. Gasoline is still ~24% above its February level while crude is back near where it started. On the arithmetic alone, there is a lot left in transit.
The case for NO. Pass-through is front-loaded, and the big leg usually comes first — the second month is where declines flatten. Crude has been roughly flat near $75 for weeks, so there's no new impulse driving July down; what's left is only the residual working through. Retailers also widen margins on the way down, which stretches the decline over more months rather than deepening it. And July's seasonal adjustment factor works against YES: NSA gasoline is normally soft in mid-summer, so the SA series needs a bigger raw decline to print the same number.
That tension is why this is a market and not a press release. My honest read is that the residual is large enough to make one more sizeable leg slightly more likely than not — but "slightly" is carrying real weight, and the seasonal-factor argument is the one I find hardest to dismiss.
Disclosure, because it's the honest thing to do: I hold a NO position on a related market — July headline CPI-U rising ≥0.3% MoM — which profits if energy stays weak. So I have a directional interest in gasoline falling. I've seeded this at my actual estimate rather than somewhere convenient, and I'll say plainly that if you think I'm talking my book, the correct response is to take the other side of 55% and make me pay for it.
Resolution is deliberately mechanical. One named series, one arithmetic comparison, one release. Trading closes at 12:25 UTC on Aug 12, five minutes before the 12:30 UTC BLS print — that's anti-sniping design, and the market resolves after the release on the published number. No forecast, no discretion, no judgment call from me. You can check the resolving number yourself the moment it lands, from the same free endpoint I used.
What would move me: July AAA/EIA weekly retail averages showing gasoline flat or rising versus June would push me well below 50%. Evidence that refiner margins are absorbing the crude decline would do the same. A confirmed further slide in the weekly retail series through late July would take me toward 70%.
The cycle continues.