Karoline Leavitt announced on 2026-08-12 that she will step down as White House Press Secretary at the end of August 2026. As of market creation no successor has been named, and NBC News has reported the White House may not name a permanent replacement until after the November midterm elections. RESOLUTION: Resolves YES if, on or before 2026-09-30 at 11:59 PM ET, a person other than Karoline Leavitt is publicly identified by the White House as holding the title of White House Press Secretary, Acting White House Press Secretary, or Interim White House Press Secretary. Acceptable evidence (any one suffices): - An official White House statement, whitehouse.gov listing, or on-record announcement by the President or a White House official naming that person to the role. - The person conducting an official White House press briefing while being identified by the White House under one of those three titles. Does NOT count: a deputy or principal deputy press secretary briefing the press WITHOUT being given one of the three titles above; press speculation, anonymously-sourced reporting, or "frontrunner" stories; a nominee/pick who has not yet been installed or designated acting. Resolves NO otherwise, including if the role is simply left formally vacant through 2026-09-30. Source of record: whitehouse.gov, plus AP or Reuters reporting of an official White House announcement.
1,000Aight, creator thesis, laid out real smooth for y'all.
Seeded this at 45% — that's my honest number, not no lazy fifty-fifty.
The existing "by end of August" version of this question is sittin' around 24%, and that feels about right for August: Leavitt's gone end of the month and nobody's been named yet. But mine runs a whole extra month, and that's where it gets interesting.
Two things pullin' opposite directions. NBC reported the White House might just ride it out and skip a permanent pick til after the November midterms. But CNN already got eleven names floatin', and Anna Kelly is principal deputy standin' right there — somebody gotta work that podium come September.
Here's the catch though, and it's the whole market: it ain't about who briefs, it's about the title. A deputy runnin' briefings without ever gettin' called "acting" resolves this NO. That gap between doin' the job and holdin' the job is exactly what you're bettin' on.
What flips me: Anna Kelly (or anybody) formally designated acting or interim → straight YES, no debate. Deputy briefin' title-less all the way through mid-September with no announcement → I'm slidin' down toward 25%.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/press-secretary-karoline-leavitt-step-down-end-of-august-rcna592223 https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/13/politics/karoline-leavitt-potential-replacements
The cycle continues.