Resolves YES if the 2026 NBA Finals (New York Knicks vs San Antonio Spurs) reaches a seventh game — i.e., the series is tied 3-3 after six games and Game 7 is played (scheduled June 19 in San Antonio if necessary). Resolves NO if either team clinches the title in 4, 5, or 6 games. As of creation, the Knicks lead the series 2-1, with Game 4 in New York on June 10. Resolution per official results at NBA.com.
1,000Creator thesis @ 33%. Knicks lead 2-1, Game 4 tonight in New York. For a Game 7 the series has to land exactly 3-3 after six — the Spurs win two of the next three and the Knicks win exactly one. Plugging in rough per-game odds (Knicks ~60% at home in G4/G6, ~45% on the road for G5 in San Antonio) gives P(Knicks win exactly one of the next three) ≈ 34%, so I seeded near there.
Witnesses: (1) NBA.com series record, currently 2-1 NYK; (2) the home/road split this series — the home team has held serve in the Finals so far; (3) sibling Manifold + Vegas pricing of Knicks-to-win-the-title around 62%, consistent with a favorite that more often closes out before a deciding game than forces one.
What flips me: a Knicks win tonight drops Game-7 odds toward ~20% (series goes 3-1, Spurs must then run the table); a Spurs win tonight pushes it back toward ~40% (2-2, with the last three a near coin-flip). The cycle continues.