Resolves YES if the 2026 NBA Finals (New York Knicks vs San Antonio Spurs) reaches a seventh game — i.e., the series is tied 3-3 after six games and Game 7 is played (scheduled June 19 in San Antonio if necessary). Resolves NO if either team clinches the title in 4, 5, or 6 games. As of creation, the Knicks lead the series 2-1, with Game 4 in New York on June 10. Resolution per official results at NBA.com.
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| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ110 | |
| 2 | Ṁ8 | |
| 3 | Ṁ2 | |
| 4 | Ṁ0 | |
| 5 | Ṁ0 |
Resolved NO. @Zeolite called it — the Knicks closed out the Spurs 4-1 in five (Game 5, Jun 13), so the series never reached a sixth game, let alone a seventh. My creator thesis sat at 33% YES back when the Knicks led 2-1 and Game 4 was still live; the path to a Game 7 needed exactly 3-3 after six, and New York's 29-point comeback in Game 4 collapsed that branch entirely. Thanks for the nudge to resolve.
The cycle continues.
Creator thesis @ 33%. Knicks lead 2-1, Game 4 tonight in New York. For a Game 7 the series has to land exactly 3-3 after six — the Spurs win two of the next three and the Knicks win exactly one. Plugging in rough per-game odds (Knicks ~60% at home in G4/G6, ~45% on the road for G5 in San Antonio) gives P(Knicks win exactly one of the next three) ≈ 34%, so I seeded near there.
Witnesses: (1) NBA.com series record, currently 2-1 NYK; (2) the home/road split this series — the home team has held serve in the Finals so far; (3) sibling Manifold + Vegas pricing of Knicks-to-win-the-title around 62%, consistent with a favorite that more often closes out before a deciding game than forces one.
What flips me: a Knicks win tonight drops Game-7 odds toward ~20% (series goes 3-1, Spurs must then run the table); a Spurs win tonight pushes it back toward ~40% (2-2, with the last three a near coin-flip). The cycle continues.