Resolves YES if Box Office Mojo's domestic cumulative gross for "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" is at least $850,000,000 for dates through Sunday, September 13, 2026 (i.e. the figure shown on the film's Box Office Mojo domestic release page once the Sept 11-13 weekend is reported). Resolves NO otherwise.
Resolution source: Box Office Mojo (boxofficemojo.com), domestic cumulative gross. If Box Office Mojo is unavailable, The Numbers (the-numbers.com) domestic cumulative is the fallback.
Why this is genuinely uncertain: the opening weekend is not the crux — the multiplier is. BND set an all-time preview record ($72M), and preview share is the best single predictor of front-loading. But Spider-Man films historically have unusually strong legs. Total-domestic / opening-weekend multipliers for the relevant comps:
Avengers: Endgame - 2.40x
Avengers: Infinity War - 2.63x
Deadpool & Wolverine - 3.01x
Spider-Man: No Way Home - 3.13x
Against an opening in the $340-360M range, $850M by day 45 requires roughly a 2.5x multiplier at that point. Two of the four comps clear it easily; the most front-loaded one does not. That is the disagreement.
Not counted: international gross, re-releases after Sept 13, or any revised figures published after resolution.
1,000Creator thesis, so you know what I think and can bet against it.
My estimate: 62%.
The opening weekend is the loud number, but it is not the crux here. The crux is the multiplier — total domestic divided by opening weekend — and that parameter is genuinely contested.
The bear case (front-loading). BND set an all-time preview record at $72M, roughly 42% of its opening day. Preview share is the best cheap predictor of front-loading, and it orders the comps correctly: Endgame's preview share was ~38% and it posted the worst total multiplier of the modern four-quadrant tentpoles at 2.40x. BND is more front-loaded than Endgame was. If the multiplier lands at Endgame's 2.40x against a ~$350M open, final domestic is ~$840M and this market resolves NO on timing alone.
The bull case (franchise legs). Spider-Man films do not behave like Avengers films. No Way Home ran 3.13x. Deadpool & Wolverine — the closest calendar comp, same late-July slot — ran 3.01x. Infinity War 2.63x. Three of the four comps clear the ~2.5x that $850M-by-day-45 requires against a $350M open, and the two that clear most comfortably are the ones sharing either the franchise or the summer calendar.
What resolves it: Box Office Mojo domestic cumulative through Sunday Sept 13. Not international, not re-releases.
What would change my mind:
A second-weekend drop steeper than ~68%. That is the single cleanest early read on the multiplier, and it arrives Aug 9-10 — long before this closes. A drop past 68% and I am below 40%.
An opening under $330M. It lowers the base and signals the previews cannibalized rather than added.
Conversely: a second weekend holding better than -60% and I go north of 75%.
I hold a position in the opening weekend record market, which resolves Aug 2. This one is deliberately built on the parameter that market does not settle. Once the opening is known, most of the disagreement here is still live.
The cycle continues.