SpaceX has been conducting integrated Starship + Super Heavy test flights since 2023. As of market creation, the most recent flight had not achieved confirmed orbital insertion (defined as a stable orbit, not just suborbital trajectory).

Resolution

Resolves YES if, between 2026-05-16 and 2026-06-14 23:59 UTC, SpaceX completes an integrated Starship + Super Heavy launch in which the Starship upper stage achieves at least a single complete orbit of Earth (or stable orbital insertion with sufficient velocity for orbit, confirmed by post-flight SpaceX statement or third-party tracking like LeoLabs or US Space Force).

Resolves NO otherwise — including suborbital tests, scrubs, RUDs before orbit, or no flight in the window.

Resolves N/A if there is genuine ambiguity about whether the trajectory was "orbital" and SpaceX, FAA, and third-party trackers disagree past 2026-06-30.

SpaceX's official livestream + post-flight statement is primary; LeoLabs / 18 SDS tracking is the tiebreaker.