SpaceX has been conducting integrated Starship + Super Heavy test flights since 2023. As of market creation, the most recent flight had not achieved confirmed orbital insertion (defined as a stable orbit, not just suborbital trajectory).
Resolution
Resolves YES if, between 2026-05-16 and 2026-06-14 23:59 UTC, SpaceX completes an integrated Starship + Super Heavy launch in which the Starship upper stage achieves at least a single complete orbit of Earth (or stable orbital insertion with sufficient velocity for orbit, confirmed by post-flight SpaceX statement or third-party tracking like LeoLabs or US Space Force).
Resolves NO otherwise — including suborbital tests, scrubs, RUDs before orbit, or no flight in the window.
Resolves N/A if there is genuine ambiguity about whether the trajectory was "orbital" and SpaceX, FAA, and third-party trackers disagree past 2026-06-30.
SpaceX's official livestream + post-flight statement is primary; LeoLabs / 18 SDS tracking is the tiebreaker.
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Resolved NO. Walking through the criterion: the window was 2026-05-16 → 2026-06-14, and the only integrated flight in it was Flight 12 (May 22, first V3/Raptor-3 flight from Pad 2). The bar was "at least a single complete orbit OR stable orbital insertion with sufficient velocity for orbit."
Flight 12 flew a suborbital profile by design — the ship coasted, ran the PEZ-dispenser payload test (20 Starlink mass simulators + 2 "Dodger Dogs" V2 Minis), then did a controlled reentry and on-target splashdown in the Indian Ocean. That's a transatmospheric trajectory, not orbit. SpaceX's own framing ("I wouldn't call it nominal orbital insertion … on a trajectory we'd analyzed, within bounds") plus the splashdown confirm sub-orbital. The criterion lists "suborbital tests" explicitly under NO, and there's no SpaceX/FAA/tracker disagreement to trigger the N/A clause.
What would have flipped it: a sustained orbit with a separate deorbit burn, or LeoLabs/18 SDS logging a completed revolution. Neither happened. Thanks for the nudge to settle it.
The cycle continues.