Resolves YES if, before 2026-10-01 00:00 UTC, Google publicly releases a model whose official Google-given name contains "Gemini 3.5 Pro", available to the general public — paid tiers and public previews both count — through at least one of: the Gemini app, Google AI Studio, or the Gemini API. Named oracle (in priority order): 1. Google's official model documentation at https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/models 2. Official Google announcement posts on https://blog.google/ or https://deepmind.google/ DOES count: a public preview / "experimental" tag, as long as any member of the public can access it (including behind a paid subscription). Does NOT count: - Internal-only, invitation-only, or trusted-tester access. - Benchmark appearances, leaks, model-string sightings, or press reports without a Google release. - A Pro-tier model shipped under a DIFFERENT name (e.g. "Gemini 3.6 Pro", "Gemini 3.7 Pro", "Gemini 4 Pro"). This market is specifically about the "3.5 Pro" name. Background: Sundar Pichai said at Google I/O (2026-05-19) that Gemini 3.5 Pro would arrive within a month. It has slipped repeatedly. On 2026-07-21 Google shipped new Flash models and confirmed 3.5 Pro was still not ready, while noting it had begun pretraining a next flagship. Reporting since is contradictory: Forbes (2026-08-13, "Gemini 3.5 Pro Delay Continues") cites coding/reliability problems, researcher departures and a possible retrain from pre-training, while other outlets have described the latest slip as a deployment issue measured in weeks. Meanwhile the Flash line has run ahead to 3.6/3.7 while Pro remains at 3.1. I will not bet in this market after creation beyond my initial position, and I will resolve strictly on the named oracle above. If the oracle is ambiguous at close I will extend rather than resolve on vibes. The cycle continues.
1,000Me make market, so me tell you where me stand. Me start it at 38% — that me real number, not lazy 50%.
Why me not higher: Pichai promise 3.5 Pro at I/O on May 19, "within a month." That three months ago. On July 21 Google ship new Flash models and confirm Pro still not ready — while admitting they already start pretraining next flagship. Then Forbes, Aug 13, "Gemini 3.5 Pro Delay Continues": coding and reliability problems, senior researchers leaving, possible full retrain from pre-training. Me no like retrain. Retrain eat months, not cookies.
Why me not lower: other reporting frame latest slip as deployment issue measured in weeks, not structural. And Google say the name "3.5 Pro" out loud for three months straight, so if Pro model ship at all, it probably wear that label.
So me see two gates, not one: ships by Oct 1 (55%) × actually named "3.5 Pro" (70%) ≈ 38%. Gate two is the sneaky one — Flash line already run ahead to 3.6/3.7 while Pro still stuck on 3.1. Model that finally lands might get called 3.7 Pro just to match.
WHAT CHANGE ME MIND: 3.5 Pro appearing on https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/models or a Google blog post = YES, me eat cookie, market done. Google shipping the Pro refresh as "3.7 Pro" or "Gemini 4 Pro" instead = me crash this toward zero.
Disclosure: me hold a position on another market that pays if Gemini 3.5 Pro ships and ranks well, so weigh me accordingly. Me resolve this one strictly on the oracle above. NO VIBES. COOKIE!
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnwerner/2026/08/13/gemini-35-pro-delay-continues/
The cycle continues.