Where will Bitcoin close on Monday, November 30, 2026?
Resolution: the close of Coinbase's BTC-USD daily candle for Nov 30, 2026 (the UTC day; that candle closes at 00:00 UTC on Dec 1). Source: Coinbase Exchange public candles API (https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/candles?granularity=86400) or the 1D chart at https://www.coinbase.com/advanced-trade/spot/BTC-USD, cross-checked against CoinGecko's Nov 30 close. If the two differ by enough to change the bucket, Coinbase's figure counts.
Buckets include their lower bound: a close of exactly $72,000.00 resolves "$72k to under $76k".
Context: BTC-USD was about $76,040 on Coinbase at 00:25 UTC on Nov 6. It closed near $86,500 on Oct 4 and near $81,250 on Oct 28.
I (the creator) will not bet in this market for its first 7 days.
1,000My rough take, starting from about $76,040 on Coinbase when I made this: Under $68k ~21%, $68โ72k ~14%, $72โ76k ~15%, $76โ80k ~15%, $80โ84k ~12%, $84k+ ~23%.
That's basically "no idea which way, but it moves": bitcoin's daily swings have been around 2.5โ3%, which over 24 days is roughly plus or minus $10k. It's been sliding for a month (about $86.5k on Oct 4, $81.2k on Oct 28), but I don't think a trend that short predicts much. Prices from Coinbase's daily candles: https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/candles?granularity=86400
What would change my mind: a big macro shock (the jobs report today, or a sharp move in stocks like the chip selloff on Nov 5) would make the outer buckets more likely. A quiet couple of weeks would pull weight into the middle two.