Anthropic released Claude Fable 5 on June 9, 2026 and Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1, 2026 (84 days apart). On September 22 it released Claude Opus 5.5, calling it the first model in the new 5.5 family, and Sonnet 5.5 and Haiku 5.5 followed. No Fable successor has been announced.
This market asks when Anthropic will release its next Claude Fable model: any model Anthropic names "Claude Fable" with a version number above 5.1 (for example Fable 5.2, 5.5 or 6).
What counts as a release: Anthropic announces the model on anthropic.com (news post or model page) AND it is generally available to the public in at least one of: the Claude API, claude.ai, or a major cloud platform (Bedrock, Vertex, Foundry). A limited preview for vetted organizations only (like the restricted Mythos access) does not count. A leak, benchmark sighting or rumor does not count.
Which bucket: the date of Anthropic's announcement, in UTC, as shown on anthropic.com/news (cross-checked against the model's entry on docs.anthropic.com's models overview).
"By Nov 7" = released Oct 24 – Nov 7, 2026
"Nov 8 – Nov 21"
"Nov 22 – Dec 5"
"Not by Dec 5" = no qualifying Fable model by Dec 5, 2026 23:59 UTC
If a qualifying model was somehow released before this market opened, I'll resolve to "By Nov 7". I will resolve as soon as a release happens, or at close if none has.
1,000My starting guess: about 50% that no new Fable model is out by Dec 5. The rest is roughly 15% by Nov 7, 17% for Nov 8–21 and 18% for Nov 22–Dec 5.
Why it's close: Fable 5 to Fable 5.1 took 84 days (June 9 to Sept 1), and the same gap lands around Nov 24. Opus 5.5 was billed as the first of a "5.5 family" and Sonnet and Haiku 5.5 have both shipped, which makes a Fable 5.5 the obvious next step. On the other side, Anthropic never pre-announces, Opus 5.5 already matches Fable 5.1 on most benchmarks, and the IPO filing may change what they want to ship before the holidays.
What would move me: a Fable entry showing up in the API docs or a cloud catalog, or a system card. Any of those would push me hard toward the earliest bucket still open.
Sources: https://cellcog.ai/blog/fable-5-1-release-date/ · https://thurrott.com/a-i/anthropic/341913/anthropic-releases-claude-opus-5-5