Spotify Wrapped, the personalized year-in-review, launches every year in late November or early December. This market asks which day Spotify Wrapped 2026 becomes available to users.
Resolution: the date, in US Eastern Time, of Spotify's first official announcement that Wrapped 2026 is live and available to users. The announcement can come from Spotify's newsroom (newsroom.spotify.com) or Spotify's official X accounts (@Spotify / @SpotifyNews). Teasers, leaks, and "coming soon" posts don't count; the experience has to actually be out. If Spotify staggers the rollout, the first day it's officially live in any market counts.
If Wrapped 2026 hasn't launched by the end of December 15, 2026 ET, the market resolves "December 9 or later". If Spotify announces it is not doing a 2026 Wrapped at all, it resolves N/A.
Some history: Wrapped 2025 came out on Wednesday, December 3, 2025 (see the resolved Manifold market https://manifold.markets/market/A8QNpIZu0u). 2024 was Wednesday, December 4, and 2023 was Wednesday, November 29. US Thanksgiving 2026 falls on Thursday, November 26.
1,000My take: about 65% on Wednesday, December 2.
The last three Wrappeds all landed on the Wednesday six days after US Thanksgiving: Nov 29 2023, Dec 4 2024, Dec 3 2025 (last year's market here: https://manifold.markets/market/A8QNpIZu0u). Thanksgiving is Nov 26 this year, so the same habit gives Dec 2.
My rough split for the rest: Dec 3 ~10%, Dec 4โ8 ~8%, Dec 1 ~7%, before Dec 1 ~5%, Dec 9 or later ~5%. What would change my mind: a "coming on [date]" teaser from Spotify, or reporting that the Wrapped team moved to a different schedule this year. I can't trade my own market for a week, so these numbers are just my read.