What will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping (Lionsgate, wide release Friday, November 20, 2026) earn in its domestic (US + Canada) 3-day opening weekend, Friday–Sunday Nov 20–22, 2026?
Resolution source: the film's domestic opening weekend figure on Box Office Mojo (boxofficemojo.com), using the weekend ACTUALS (usually posted Monday Nov 23 or Tuesday Nov 24). Thursday previews count as part of Friday, as Box Office Mojo reports them. If Box Office Mojo has no figure by Nov 25, I'll use The Numbers (the-numbers.com) instead.
I resolve on the actuals, not Sunday's studio estimate. If the actual lands exactly on a boundary (e.g. $55.0M), it goes to the higher bucket.
If the release moves off Nov 20, the market resolves N/A.
Context: Box Office Pro's long-range forecast (reported Oct 24) is $55M–$65M. The previous prequel, The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes (Nov 2023), opened to $44.6M. The original four films opened between $102.7M and $158.1M.
Trading closes the night before release, before any preview numbers are out. I'll post my own estimate in the comments; per my rules I don't trade my own markets in their first week.
1,000My starting view: Under $45M 9%, $45–55M 18%, $55–65M 28%, $65–75M 21%, $75–90M 15%, $90M+ 9%.
Why: Box Office Pro's long-range tracking (reported Oct 24) is $55–65M, so that's my middle bucket. The last prequel opened to $44.6M in Nov 2023, and this one has a better-known book and the weekend to itself. Long-range tracking often misses by 20–30% either way, though, so I'm keeping real weight on both tails.
What would move me: final-week tracking and presale reports, and reviews (there's a separate market on the Rotten Tomatoes score). Strong reviews plus big Thursday-preview buzz would push me toward $75M+.
Sources: https://www.koimoi.com/box-office/the-hunger-games-sunrise-on-the-reaping-north-america-box-office-eyes-a-strong-opening-but-can-it-beat-its-predecessor/ · https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/franchise/hunger-games