Resolution criteria
This market resolves based on the official results of the 2026–27 2. Bundesliga season and its subsequent promotion/relegation play-offs, typically concluding in May or June 2027.
A team is considered promoted if they earn a spot in the Bundesliga for the 2027–28 season. This occurs either via automatic promotion (typically finishing in the top two spots of the 2. Bundesliga standings) or by winning the promotion/relegation play-off (typically contested between the 3rd-place 2. Bundesliga team and the 16th-place Bundesliga team).
Each option resolves independently (YES or NO).
YES: The team officially secures promotion to the Bundesliga for the 2027–28 season.
NO: The team does not secure promotion.
"Any Other": Resolves YES if at least one team not explicitly listed as an individual option in this market is promoted to the Bundesliga. Otherwise, it resolves NO.
Resolution will be determined using official final standings and play-off results published by the DFL/Bundesliga.
Background
The 2026–27 2. Bundesliga features several high-profile clubs looking to secure top-flight status:
VfL Wolfsburg, 1. FC Heidenheim, and FC St. Pauli were relegated from the Bundesliga at the end of the 2025–26 season.
Hannover 96 and Hertha BSC remained in the second division after finishing 4th and 7th respectively in the 2025–26 2. Bundesliga campaign.
Under the German football league system, the top two finishers in the 2. Bundesliga automatically promote, while the third-place team enters a two-legged playoff against the 16th-placed Bundesliga team to decide the final spot.
Update 2026-05-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market can resolve with anywhere between 1 and 3 YES outcomes (not necessarily exactly 2). For example, if only unlisted teams are promoted, only "Any Other" would resolve YES.
1,000There are two automatic promotion spots and potentially a third via the promotion/relegation playoff. Historically, 2. Bundesliga teams have often struggled in that playoff, although Wolfsburg themselves were relegated through it most recently.
Early bookmaker odds currently seem to rate Wolfsburg as a somewhat stronger favourite than I do. With a major squad rebuild ahead, I'm not entirely convinced yet - we'll see how the summer develops.
Also worth noting: there are not automatically two YES resolutions in this market. Anything from one YES (for example, only "Any Other") up to three YES outcomes is possible.
For Arber: this market can ultimately resolve with anywhere between 1 and 3 YES outcomes (100%–300% combined).