Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, between July 20, 2026, and July 31, 2026 (inclusive, in local European times), any of the following official meteorological agencies or scientific bodies officially declares, defines, or confirms a heatwave (including equivalent local terms such as "vague de chaleur", "ola de calor", "ondata di calore", or "Hitzewelle") occurring within their respective European territory or across Europe:

• Spain: AEMET

• France: Météo-France

• United Kingdom: Met Office

• Germany: DWD

• Italy: MeteoAM

• European Union: Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)

• International: World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

For the avoidance of doubt, Spain’s AEMET official heatwave warning issued on July 20, 2026, for a meteorological episode commencing on July 21, 2026, does satisfy the criteria for a heatwave occurring before August. Any other distinct heatwave declared or active during the July 20–31 window will also trigger a YES resolution.

If no such official heatwave occurs or is declared during this period, the market will resolve to NO.

Background

Summer 2026 has brought historically severe heat to Europe, with Western Europe registering its hottest June on record. After brief regional cooldowns, weather forecasting models in late July 2026 indicate a return of extreme heat across Southern and Western Europe. On July 20, 2026, Spain's AEMET issued a special warning for a new official heatwave starting July 21, with GFS and ECMWF models projecting potential record-shattering temperatures across the Iberian Peninsula and France toward the end of the month.

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