Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Manifold achieves mainstream popularity status by December 31, 2026. Resolution will be based on:

• User metrics: Reaching 100,000+ monthly active users (MAU) or 10,000+ daily active users (DAU)

• Cultural presence: Significant mainstream media coverage or recognition as a household name

• Market activity: Sustained high trading volume and market creation rates

Resolution sources: Manifold's user activity stats, major news outlets, and Manifold's official announcements.

The market resolves NO if Manifold fails to meet these thresholds by the deadline.

Background

Manifold was founded in December 2021 by Austin Chen and brothers James and Stephen Grugett. Users engage in competitive forecasting using play money called 'Mana'. Manifold used to support real money betting using 'sweepcash', but this was sunset on March 28, 2025. As of March 2024, Manifold had over 2,000 daily active users and up to 200,000 unique visitors per month.

Considerations

Recent data suggests headwinds for growth. The record low for daily active trading users was 886 on March 14, 2025. Achieving "super and hyper popular" status within 12 months would require reversing a declining trend and achieving 10-100x user growth—a significant challenge for a niche platform competing in an already-saturated social media landscape.