Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if the price of Bitcoin (BTC) drops below $16,500.00 USD at any point before December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.

Resolution will be determined by the BTC/USD index or price feed on CoinGecko's Bitcoin page. If CoinGecko is unavailable or exhibits an obvious data anomaly/glitch, secondary reference will be taken from CoinMarketCap or major spot exchanges (such as Coinbase or Binance). The dip below $16,500 must represent legitimate spot trading activity, not an isolated flash crash on a single low-liquidity exchange.

Background

Bitcoin previously traded below $16,500 during the bottom of the 2022 bear market following the collapse of FTX, reaching an intraday low around $15,500 in November 2022. It subsequently rallied past previous all-time highs during 2024. A return below $16,500 would represent an unprecedented drawdown of over 75% to 80% from its post-2024 price levels.