Possible scenario:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1587203759108661251.html
Resolves YES if following coordinated international regulatory action, total market cap of the top 3 decentralized cryptocurrencies drops to less than 10% of all-time high and stays there for at least 3 months.
1,000
3.00In the scenario https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1587203759108661251.html
The regulated-exchange price would diverge from the black market price. Your self-custody bitcoin that you have full control over would be vastly more valuable than your soon-to-be-outlawed and unwithdrawable IOUs on a centralized exchange. Nobody would send their bitcoin to an exchange if it's just a black hole of wealth confiscation like that. Nobody in government can find your self-custody bitcoin if you take a few precautions.
The world can't even coordinate enough on climate change, even when they mostly agree it's a much bigger deal than suppressing crypto. If 50% of the world (economy-size-weighted) blocks bitcoin, the other 50% still uses it, bitcoin is fine. If the US and EU putting harsh economic sanctions on every country that doesn't reduce carbon emissions enough, then maybe I'll believe the'll try the same thing to suppress bitcoin when it exceeds 1M and threatens hyperbitcoinization. And even if they do that, <5% chance the black market price of bitcoin drops below 1k.
