Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if there is public or verified confirmation that at least one couple who met in person for the first time at either a LessOnline (LO) or Vibecamp event (including closely associated events held during the same late-spring/early-summer "festival season", such as Manifest or Lighthaven Summer Camp) has a live-born baby on or before August 1, 2027. Otherwise, the market resolves to NO.

• "Met at": The couple must have met in person for the first time at one of these events.

• "Healthy baby": Defined as a live birth with no extremely severe birth defects(downs,hydroencephalus, etc).

• Verification: Public announcements on Twitter/X, LessWrong, the Vibecamp Discord, or direct confirmation from prominent event organizers (e.g., Brooke Vance / @gptbrooke) will serve as the source of truth.

Background

LessOnline and Vibecamp are prominent annual gatherings for the rationalist, post-rationalist, and "This Part of Twitter" (TPOT) communities. Held primarily in late spring and early summer alongside events like Manifest, this "festival season" has fostered a highly connected offline social network, already resulting in several marriages. This market tracks the demographics of this cohort leading up to June 2027.

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