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| # | Name | Total profit |
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Resolves NO, as Wikipedia (among other sources) indicates that the highest recorded temperature in European history is still the 48.8 that was measured in Sicily in 2021.
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No record broken so far.... ECMWF 2m EFI SoT is low for next two days (99 percentile). I interpret this as a minuscule chance of the record being broken before August finishes.
Interpreting EFI 2m charts from ECMWF, it looks like it is between 1-10% for the next 7 days (to August 29) for the question to resolve YES, so I am betting NO for now (there is some uncertainty in EFI forecasts this far out, also it does not cover the last 2 days in August). However, looking at the trends for mean 2m temp right now, if it doesn't reach it on August 28 (Apulia shows some of the highest extremes for this period), it seems less likely afterwards for Aug 29-31.