Recently, North Korea made headlines by officially abandoning its goal of reuniting with the South and subsequently amending its constitution to determine South Korea its "primary foe and principal enemy" and then demolishing the reunification monument constructed by Kim Jong-Il.

Shortly after, two "eminent North Korea experts" of the Stimson Center published an article declaring that they believe that "Kim Jong Un has made a strategic decision to go to war".

Is this true?

This market will resolve YES if undisputable evidence emerges that Kim Jong Un has, indeed, made the strategic decision to go to war. This can, for example, happen through unambiguous western intelligence reports or if North Korea actually does attack the South causing a total of at least 1000 combat-related deaths in a single calendar year.

Statements made by North Korean officials will not count as undisputable evidence.

• Update 2025-05-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Based on the creator's comment:

  • The market will be resolved according to the spirit of the question, which primarily concerns a potential conflict involving North Korea directly, specifically with South Korea, as discussed in the referenced article.

  • Sending troops to a foreign conflict (e.g., participating in the war in Ukraine) will not in itself be considered sufficient evidence of the "strategic decision to go to war" required for a YES resolution.