Will Christian Lindner (german secretary of finance) be out of office before the next federal election?
Basic
25
4.1k
Sep 22
17%
chance

Will resolve NO, if Christian Lindner is still in office when the planned 2025 federal election is over.

Will resolve YES, if Christian Lindner is not in office anymore before the planned 2025 federal election.

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predicts NO

What if the coalition falls apart before the 2025 elections?

@Primer PING time=3,600,878 ms

predicts NO

@Svenbonne So, what about the question?

predicts NO

@PS resolution only depends on whether Christian is still in office at the election date. If the goverment changes between now and the next federal election (not the small re-election cycles helf in Berlin) and Christian stays in office: nothing changes. If the new Goverment includes Chtistian with a different role or does not include him this resolves Yes.

@Svenbonne You might want to say "sometime on the day of the next federal election" (not necessarily in 2025) in the description and title then.

predicts NO

@Primer I added planned before the election in 2025, because this does not really change the meaning of the discription, but adds Information for some edgecases which were pointed out here.

@Svenbonne How and when will this resolve if there's Neuwahlen in 2024 and the next planned federal election is in e.g. 2028?

predicts NO

@Primer if there would be Neuwahlen in 2024 and Christian is still in office: NO after election

If christian drops out of office before any election: YES after some time and press coverage that confirms this.

@Svenbonne Ok, did I misunderstand your comment above then?

resolution only depends on whether Christian is still in office at the election date

I thought only the election day counts...?

predicts NO

@Primer if Christian Lindner is still in office until the election date, that date is the earliest for this to resolve NO.

It resolves Yes if Cristian Lindner is not anymore in his current role of the government and no federal election has been held since this Market started.