Will Russian athletes be barred from the 2024 Olympics
Basic
89
21k
Jul 31
5%
chance

Being allowed to compete but not under the Russian flag would be NO

A few athletes competing for other countries teams while the majority of Russian athletes are banned would be YES

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predicts NO

@42irrationalist I will hold off resolving until opening ceremonies because who knows if the Russians will do something so bad as to cause IOC to revisit. Probably much less than 5 percent chance, but not zero

@AlQuinn Do you understand the criteria to be the same? I’ve read both several times to be sure. I think so but I’m not certain. Would both markets resolve NO if Russian athletes were allowed to compete under a different flag (white, ROC, different nation)?

predicts NO

@NicoDelon it really seems they are approximately the same to me, and I've reread both a few times. But warning! I am dyslexic (and kind of dumb) though! They might resolve a bit differently if there are a very small number of non-Russia flag Russians competing, but I think actually hitting that grey-zone is very unlikely.

predicts NO

@NicoDelon though I guess you could argue the other one is about the IOC decision, and this one is barred for any reason, since that part is not specified. Maybe IOC decides it's okay but then something else happens and they are barred through some other mechanism. But again, seems like edge case stuff

predicts NO

@AlQuinn Thanks!

predicts YES

@AlQuinn you are correct that this one is generic and would resolve NO regardless of reason banned. The only wiggle room is that a few individual athletes sneaking through the ban via loopholes would not invalidate the YES