Will Janja Garnbret win a sport climbing gold medal at the 2024 Olympics?
Will Janja Garnbret win a sport climbing gold medal at the 2024 Olympics?
27
1kṀ16kresolved Aug 10
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves N/A if the sport climbing event doesn't happen, for whatever reason. If it's merely postponed, the closing date will be pushed back.
If the event happens but she doesn't participate, that counts as NO.
If she somehow wins in speed, that counts as YES too, sure.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
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