He holds 210k YES shares now. This is his account: https://manifold.markets/SanghyeonSeo
He recently bought 200USD of mana and yeeted into LK-99 at 8-10% YES
He regularly posts somewhat details-light positive posts about LK-99 on here and twitter. EDIT 9/4: after this market was made, more details started coming out. Apologies for the earlier comments --END EDIT
This claim is about if he'll stop pushing LK-99
We will measure by him doing any of these in the last 30 days:
If he does any of these, he is considered active:
1) has posted about LK-99 on his current twitter https://twitter.com/sanxiyn
2) has posted any comment on manifold on an LK-99 related market
3) has bought or sold any LK-99 related share on manifold
For all: References which could potentially be about LK-99 will be interpreted generously
Or put in other words, will he stop being a public LK-99 supporter.
Claim can resolve YES as soon as the conditions are met.
Reddit and other sites not included.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ221 | |
| 2 | Ṁ111 | |
| 3 | Ṁ14 | |
| 4 | Ṁ14 | |
| 5 | Ṁ1 |
@Ernie Sanghyeon Seo has just made a bet on the below-linked market.
As there are less than 30 days left in 2023, it's no longer possible for him to have a 30-day betting/commenting gap this year, so I think this resolves NO.
/Ernie/there-will-be-a-quantum-energy-rese-f1078190f94f
@MartinRandall based on the list above I'd say no although I admit it is tough. Discord started to receive updates from him after this market was created.
@StrayClimb Yes, it's awkward because you also have "This claim is about if he'll stop pushing LK-99" and "put in other words, will he stop being a public LK-99 supporter". Maybe it won't come up, but on vibes I think public Manifold Discord channels should count.
@MartinRandall given his history of regularly posting to Twitter and manifold it seems still generally meaningful if either of those stops. I don't want it have to keep expanding coverage to potential areas of posting, especially Korean language sources I'd have a hard time reading. This is mostly about the future of a strong proponent of something which may turn out to be vapors. As a matter of general interest