Presumably to France or the EU, but not necessarily. Any athlete who "goes missing" but for whom an attempt at asylum or defection isn't publicly revealed doesn't count.

Only an attempt is required. Must be a registered competitor in the 2024 Summer Olympics.

Articles seem to suggest that this is a common occurrence at every Olympics, but how frequently isn't always known publicly as the IOC doesn't officially track asylum seekers. So another way of asking this question is: "Will there be a high-profile case of defection at the 2024 Olympics?"

A List of Some Past Notable Defections

^ No idea if that will be kept up to date in time for this market. Could be a good source, but doesn't necessarily prove the negative.