Will the name of Nintendo's next console include a number?
39
68
710
2025
27%
chance

Resolves as YES if the next new console announced by Nintendo includes a number in its name. Otherwise, NO.

The number can be a numeral or word in any language, but must clearly be a number. i.e., "Two", "II", "2", "二" all count, and it can be any number like the "64" in "Nintendo 64". Words that refer to numbers but aren't numbers themselves, such as "Dual" don't count.

Can be a mainline console, whether or not it's following in the Switch series, but can also be a small handheld device if they revive the DS series (for example). Cannot be a revival of a previously released system, however.

Shamelessly stolen from @evergreenemily:

This market is about the next console announced by Nintendo, and will not automatically resolve as YES if they announce a more powerful Switch. This next console must be capable of playing games that cannot be played on a Switch. If Nintendo never releases another console, I will resolve this market as N/A, and I will be sad. If Nintendo has not announced a new console by 12/31/24, this market will have its closing date pushed back.

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bought Ṁ100 of NO

Here’s the way I see it - marketing something as a “sequel console” was a catastrophic mistake for Nintendo with the Wii U, and that mistake was recent enough that there are people at Nintendo who won’t let them make that mistake again. That rules out “Switch 2”.

There’s also the possibility that it’s just a random name with a number in the title. The only precedent I can think of for this is 3DS and N64. Both of these had to do with technical breakthroughs - 3D and 64 bit. The only plausible thing I can think of is 4K, but I don’t think they’ll put it in the name, it’s not a real differentiator.

predicts YES

there have been almost exclusively NO bets so far. in general, I agree it's unlikely, but what are people's personal credences? How likely do you think it really is?

predicts NO

@Stralor 25% seems about right to me. I think it's more likely that they'll use a word, but I think Switch 2 or Switch 2.0 is the option I'm assigning plurality support to in my head at the moment, just because there's a lot of words they could use (and they could pull a 3DS and put a number in an unexpected place.)

bought Ṁ30 of NO

Betting NO as a hedge against my Switch 2 theory being wrong.

predicts YES

@evergreenemily unlike playstation and xbox, nintendo consoles are inconsistent about using numbers unless maybe they're a followup to something hyper popular (like the switch) so it's a good hedge!