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MANIFOLD
If Stef makes dedicated conditional markets and makes a market about making a spoof ad, will she make the ad and use AI?
10
Ṁ300Ṁ277
Jul 15
57%
Conditionals NO, Market NO, Ad NO
3%
Conditionals NO, Market NO, Ad YES, AI NO
3%
Conditionals NO, Market NO, Ad YES, AI YES
3%
Conditionals NO, Market YES, Ad NO
7%
Conditionals NO, Market YES, Ad YES, AI NO
3%
Conditionals NO, Market YES, Ad YES, AI YES
2%
Conditionals YES, Market NO, Ad NO
2%
Conditionals YES, Market NO, Ad YES, AI NO
4%
Conditionals YES, Market NO, Ad YES, AI YES
6%
Conditionals YES, Market YES, Ad NO
4%
Conditionals YES, Market YES, Ad YES, AI NO
5%
Conditionals YES, Market YES, Ad YES, AI YES

4-way semi-dependent conditionals, for the lolz and to prove how much we need the tech.

"Conditionals" = Whether she makes a dedicated market type for X-by-Y conditional scenarios, much like this nonsense but cleaner. If someone else on the team does so it's fair play. The feature must simply exist and be clearly functional as a first-class market type

"Market" = Whether she makes the question about whether she'll use AI to make the spoof ad. @shankypanky must be the one to make the market for this to resolve yes, and it must be a conditional market, either in this format or the new one

"Ad" = Whether she makes said spoof ad (see screenshots)

"AI" = If the ad comes to be, whether it will be made with AI or not

Context from discord:

I'm giving it a stiff timeline ending in a few weeks, mid July. Anything not complete by then resolves NO.

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filled a Ṁ64 NO at 3% order

Look at this dandy financial technology!

how long should I give her?

@Stralor How long does it normally take to make a conventional ad without AI?

@Quroe hmm I'm not expert numero uno, but if you use stock vids + editing I'd give it 2-4 weeks. ofc casting can go longer, and hardened pros can write, produce, and edit much faster

@Stralor Do as any good project manager would do: take your initial estimation and double it.

@Quroe i think you mean half it, right? 😇

@Stralor "good"

@Quroe I split the difference. You have until mid July, Stef! Speed is the essence of riffing and responding, after all

@Stralor Tools are much better these days. It's possible to do the ad in a day ime, esp if precise quality isn't required, but that shouldn't at all be the expectation.

cc @Quroe @shankypanky

@Stralor You're really pushing my promise to trade on such a market to its limit.

@Quroe 😈

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