If Stef makes dedicated conditional markets and makes a market about making a spoof ad, will she make the ad and use AI?

Question

4-way semi-dependent conditionals, for the lolz and to prove how much we need the tech.

"Conditionals" = Whether she makes a dedicated market type for X-by-Y conditional scenarios, much like this nonsense but cleaner. If someone else on the team does so it's fair play. The feature must simply exist and be clearly functional as a first-class market type

"Market" = Whether she makes the question about whether she'll use AI to make the spoof ad. @shankypanky must be the one to make the market for this to resolve yes, and it must be a conditional market, either in this format or the new one

"Ad" = Whether she makes said spoof ad (see screenshots)

"AI" = If the ad comes to be, whether it will be made with AI or not

Context from discord:

[image][image]Timeline unclear, close date may be refined and extended but I'll try to keep the pressure up on her if I do so and will communicate here. If I do, I won't extend beyond July at the latest. Presumably she'll want the spoof ad ASAP if she's gonna do it.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Conditionals NO, Market NO, Ad NO, followed by Conditionals NO, Market YES, Ad YES, AI NO and Conditionals YES, Market YES, Ad NO are most likely. See the market for live updates (5 traders, as of Jun 23, 2026).

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