Will I host an invite-only pre-party at Manifest (2025), and what metrics will I use to vet invitees?
18
510Ṁ1292
Jun 1
96%
[Pat doesn't host an invite-only party]
95%
[Pat doesn't host a party]
91%
[Pat doesn't attend Manifest]
69%
[Pat doesn't go to Manifest or for some reason can't host the party but delegates to another Host in his absence]
28%
Has notable status on other prediction market platform(s)
24%
Manifold Profits
23%
Sponsorship of party
23%
Willingness to bring food, drink, or other useful items
22%
Outputs of at least one Aella survey
20%
Astrological Sign
20%
Chain of Trust
20%
Will be attending Manifest in any capacity
20%
Solves the Door Guards' Riddle
20%
Personality Type (Myers-Briggs maybe?)
20%
Guys who like to talk about software but promise not to
20%
Literacy level
20%
Pat makes a small online game to play in order to reach the RSVP (like captcha principles, but not shit)
19%
Comfortable Taboos
19%
+1 (Partner)
19%
+1 (Friend)

I'm idly considering spinning up my own lil shindig to get the vibes I like most at Manifest drummed up early in a smaller group. Not sure it'll be possible considering finances and logistics, but I'd love to get up to some mischief if I can.

I suppose we could call it Pat's Private Pre-Party (obv because Manifold needs more PPs), or Stralor's Salacious Soiree (oh how SPICEy!).

What's the best way to get awesome vibes? I've added a bunch of metrics, including some I suspect are absolutely awful. Help me out by pricing them and adding your own!

All questions or items that aren't included in a vetting process, explicitly or implicitly, resolve NO, including if there isn't a party for whatever reason.

Meta answers like "[Manifest doesn't happen]" are welcome but should be placed in brackets to distinguish them, due to likely differences in resolution.

Specific clarifications:

  • Age restrictions are exclusive: if I use any, the others resolve NO. It'll count even if I give out individual exceptions

  • "Celebrity": the famous person pass

  • "Chain of Trust": invitees would need to have a sponsor at the party who is responsible for them if they misbehave, and who would get ejected if they were. Contrast somewhat to "Referral" and "+1"s

  • "Comfortable Taboos": something along the lines of "Which classic social taboos are you comfortable being around in a party context?" [Politics/ Religion/ Sex/ Drugs/ Gambling/ etc.]

  • "Referral": knowing somebody else at the party or in my social circle

  • "Sponsorship of party": supplying some funds, venue, or such to the party. (NB: even if this would resolve YES given the chance, it will resolve NO if no one is a sponsor or the only sponsors were already invited)

  • "+1"s: attached to someone else who gets a solid invite

Close date may change as the next Manifest approaches or when I decide what I'll do. I won't bet.

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