Will I host an invite-only pre-party at Manifest (2025), and what metrics will I use to vet invitees?
16
510Ṁ992
Jun 1
95%
[Pat doesn't host a party]
93%
[Pat doesn't host an invite-only party]
84%
[Pat doesn't attend Manifest]
74%
Require one soup recipe per attendee
69%
[Pat doesn't go to Manifest or for some reason can't host the party but delegates to another Host in his absence]
28%
Has notable status on other prediction market platform(s)
24%
Manifold Profits
23%
Sponsorship of party
23%
Has a Supporter ticket to Manifest
23%
Has a Special Guest ticket to Manifest
23%
Willingness to bring food, drink, or other useful items
22%
Outputs of at least one Aella survey
20%
Links to Social Media
20%
Age (25+)
20%
Sexuality
20%
Astrological Sign
20%
Chain of Trust
20%
Will be attending Manifest in any capacity
20%
Solves the Door Guards' Riddle
20%
Opinion of particular piece(s) of art

I'm idly considering spinning up my own lil shindig to get the vibes I like most at Manifest drummed up early in a smaller group. Not sure it'll be possible considering finances and logistics, but I'd love to get up to some mischief if I can.

I suppose we could call it Pat's Private Pre-Party (obv because Manifold needs more PPs), or Stralor's Salacious Soiree (oh how SPICEy!).

What's the best way to get awesome vibes? I've added a bunch of metrics, including some I suspect are absolutely awful. Help me out by pricing them and adding your own!

All questions or items that aren't included in a vetting process, explicitly or implicitly, resolve NO, including if there isn't a party for whatever reason.

Meta answers like "[Manifest doesn't happen]" are welcome but should be placed in brackets to distinguish them, due to likely differences in resolution.

Specific clarifications:

  • Age restrictions are exclusive: if I use any, the others resolve NO. It'll count even if I give out individual exceptions

  • "Celebrity": the famous person pass

  • "Chain of Trust": invitees would need to have a sponsor at the party who is responsible for them if they misbehave, and who would get ejected if they were. Contrast somewhat to "Referral" and "+1"s

  • "Comfortable Taboos": something along the lines of "Which classic social taboos are you comfortable being around in a party context?" [Politics/ Religion/ Sex/ Drugs/ Gambling/ etc.]

  • "Referral": knowing somebody else at the party or in my social circle

  • "Sponsorship of party": supplying some funds, venue, or such to the party. (NB: even if this would resolve YES given the chance, it will resolve NO if no one is a sponsor or the only sponsors were already invited)

  • "+1"s: attached to someone else who gets a solid invite

Close date may change as the next Manifest approaches or when I decide what I'll do. I won't bet.

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I'll be there Thursday when's the party

@strutheo

I asked Pat and the response was no plans to attend at this time and no progress on organizing a party yet

boughtṀ5 YES

@Nikos pirate.markets? sounds good to me!

some of these options are at 69% and I appreciate how apropos that is

same - the default 5M initial bet on an option at 50% knowingly takes you right there ♋

@shankypanky how might I filter for this with people I don't know?

oh that aligns with another idea I had

nah actually they're separate - maybe ask for a joke or a story or a FL profile link idk lol

ehehehe that link could be fuuun

bought Ṁ5 YES

hahahahahahha

after this year's quiet snafu...

if I participate in this market and still don't get an invite I stg...

me: 😇

you: 🔪

as Joshua memed, I've gotta take this shit into my own hands so we don't get burned again

fool me once...

oh wait you were twice scorned!

😞

@Stralor what sort of things are included here?

I was thinking along the lines of a checkbox list of the classic "bad topics to bring up at Thanksgiving/ with a stranger/ on a first date", like politics, religion, sex, drugs, gambling, and so forth. Basically, if it's a spicy party, I'd want to encourage certain spicy behavior and wouldn't want to bring people in who would be uncomfortable with it.

This list is already in the desc, but I consider it fairly flexible and I'm willing to put in some noise for aspects that I wouldn't be trying to incite.

I'm functionally illiterate and under caffeinated - totally didn't properly read the description (adding "literate" to the market)

lol "hello friend, please give a book report on Infinite Jest in order to be considered for the party"

like a reverse escape room - you need to read and solve the clues in order to enter the party

make the invite vetting an ARG... that would be kinda awesome actually

bought Ṁ10 NO

The factors don't have to be binding or in some score, right? Like if you invite anyone based on a particular criterion that counts, even if you don't reject others for not satisfying it.

yeah for sure. some might be required, others might be considered helpful, and a few could be blockers.

bought Ṁ20 NO

All questions or items that aren't included in a vetting process, explicitly or implicitly, resolve NO, including if there isn't a party for whatever reason.

Hmm, this is kind of awkward. I know we can't do N/A anymore, but it's kind of awkward that every answer has a large dependence on one common factor like this. I feel it would have been better to resolve them based on what you think you'd do if you did organize a party in that case.

"[Pat doesn't host a party]" is at 50%, and there's 15 actual answers above 50% lol

"Will pat host a party AND use this metric to vet invitees?" instead of a conditional phrasing might make it more clear

yeah I'm not perfectly sure how to handle this. Bayesian has the right idea, but maybe there's a solution that involves allowing resolutions if I write a spec for a party even if I don't host it? though that doesn't really allow for writing up a retrospective as proof for resolution. idk. maybe we just need the market to settle and get arbitraged to balanced prices

for now I've changed the title based on Bayesian's suggestion, so hopefully it gets priced in.

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