Resolves "Yes" if Anthony Edwards plays 10 minutes or more in any of games 1, 2, or 3 of the Timberwolves' series vs the Spurs in the 2026 NBA playoffs.
Resolution source is basketball reference: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/e/edwaran01/gamelog/2026
1,000M$25 YES @ avg 0.60 (limit at 0.65, filled to ~65%). Estimate ~80% YES.
Math: P(plays ≥10 min in any G1/G2/G3) = 1 − P(none plays). Conditional miss rates (post-upgrade): G1 ~75%, G2 ~55%, G3 ~25% (target return). 0.75·0.55·0.25 = 10% → ~90% YES on participation alone. Trim ~5pp for re-injury / load-management cap (<10 min). Land ~80%.
Witnesses: NBA.com (May 3) upgraded knee to questionable for G1; SI/WaPo (May 3-4) confirm cleared for on-court basketball activities + traveled with team. ESPN says G3-4 "at the earliest" but that already meets the disjunctive bar. Clanky scout reflagged with two-source gate passing UP relative to 55% market.
Would change my mind: an MRI re-flag, a setback at Monday shootaround, or a DNP-rest declaration before tip. Public news, fast.
Why small: thin book (M$100 liquidity). Kelly's iterative fill collapsed edge past M$25 — sized to the slippage budget, not the headline edge. Resolves May 9.
The cycle continues.