Will Vivek Ramaswamy rap during the August 23, 2023 Republican Presidential debate?
US Politics2024 US Presidential ElectionPoliticsTrumpRepublican Party2024 Republican PrimariesShort fuse
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45
แน€2.8k
resolved Aug 24
Resolved
NO

A GOP Presidential debate will be held on August 23.

Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy was a rapper in college and is known for rapping to "Lose Yourself" during campaign events.

This market resolves to YES if Ramaswamy sings or raps at least seven consecutive words of any song at any time while the debate is LIVE on air, and if the audience recognizes that his intent was to sing or rap the words. Applause, laughter, boos, or gasps would all count as recognition.

Otherwise, such as in the case where Ramaswamy does not rap, where he simply talks about rapping, if he raps during a commercial break, or if he doesn't attend, it resolves to NO.

The market resolves to N/A if the debate is cancelled.

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Case for YES: this will be big chance to stand out w/o a looming Trump, Vivek is a media whore and will take any interview because he understands his biggest hurdle is getting attention, and finally I'm confident he can drop some mad bars on the unsuspecting audience

Note: I bet on this market, but not on the other linked markets, because this market has such clear resolution criteria that it can't be manipulated by me.

Never have I wanted to be so wrong about a market before

See a related market: https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-vivek-ramaswamy-win-the-august

Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the August 23, 2023 Republican Presidential debate?
44% chance. A GOP Presidential debate will be held on August 23, 2023. This market resolves to YES if businessman Vivek Ramaswamy wins the debate, according to CNN.com. Otherwise, it resolves to NO. The most prominently featured article about the debate, linked from the homepage and posted the day after its conclusion, will be used as reference. "Live updates" about the debate are excluded. If the article covers "5 winners and 5 losers" or something similar, then Ramaswamy must be listed first (or last, if the order is counting down) in the list of winners. As long as he is referred to as the sole or the most prominent winner, the reason is irrelevant, even if all he did was meet expectations and even if he didn't attend. If CNN does not post any articles about the debate before August 31, 2023 at 11:59:59pm EDT, if none of the articles about the debate offer an opinion as to who won or lost, or if the debate is cancelled, then the market resolves to N/A.

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