Any last minute takers?

New market:

/SteveSokolowski/will-the-first-question-of-the-2024

This has got to be one of the wackiest markets on Manifold.

Nobody has any idea whatsoever whether the moderators are going to do this fact check, probably not even the moderators themselves. The swings here are wild (and profitable.)

@SteveSokolowski yup I think I can afford to burn 50 mana though so I'm gonna just chuck it at yes

Looks like they're doing something different: real-time fact checking... via QR code that links to their site. I feel like they may even be discouraging the moderators from jumping in with fact checks just to push people there.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/30/business/media/cbs-vice-presidential-debate-fact-check-qr.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Ok4.LHZO.C8VYPHuPx-CC&smid=url-share

I suppose there's room for another development or for the moderators to go back on their word, so I wouldn't put this at 0% and am settling on my position with 500 manna bet here. But CBS has openly declared that moderators will not fact check during the debate.

@ChrisSnyder I think what they say and what they do are two different things, though.

There were quite a few lies that were pretty far out there during the Presidential debates. But I do think that both Vance and Walz are out there to not rock the boat, so they will probably stick to boilerplate talking points.

I'm not sure what happened but I must have changed the market's text accidentally. Just to clarify, it should have read:

"If the debate is cancelled, the market will resolve to N/A; otherwise, it will resolve to NO."

[Didn’t read the description closely enough never mind]