Will Bitcoin be worth more than $60,000 when BlockFi pays its initial distribution to me?
Basic
6
Ṁ160
resolved Apr 25
Resolved
YES

The BlockFi bankruptcy estate is currently beginning initial distributions, which are expected to be around 47.5% of the claim amount for BlockFi Lending LLC "Private Client" creditors.

Unfortunately, rather than paying out the cash they had, the estate used the cash to buy coins. Please assist me in determining whether I should sell the 13 bitcoins and 150 ETH in a futures contract now, or wait to sell them immediately upon receipt.

The market resolves YES if Cryptocurrency Management LLC, which is the 19th largest creditor to BlockFi (owed $2.68 million), and which is listed publicly on the docket, has its coins received by Kraken and Kraken lists them as confirmed and actually available for immediate sale while the price of BTC is $60,000 or above.

BlockFi has claimed that they intend to issue the payouts in March 2024 and made its first payments to some creditors on February 29, 2024. They have not provided a reasoning for the order in which they are issuing the distributions or why everyone can't use their online system to withdraw at once.

Otherwise, the market resolves to NO. It resolves to N/A if the estate cancels the initial distribution or pays in some other currency. The resolution date is the date on which the coins are received or the cancellation is announced.

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RESOLUTION: BlockFi finally paid out the owed bitcoins and I was able to send them to Kraken for sale a few blocks ago.

Proof is at b4c5dfe04328528c073ae025f9646cd52087c5f2d045060bc9f6c8e8690c3d48.

They got it out just in time apparently, because the 4 hour charts look like impending doom. Despite that, the resolution is YES.