Which event is most likely to resolve this market to YES?

MANIFOLD

resolved Feb 1

2 - Weak AGI Achieved

1 - Catastrophic Disaster

3 - Runaway Climate Emergency

9 - China War Destroys TSMC Fabs

10 - Worse Pandemic

4 - Nuclear War

6 - US Coup

5 - Non-Human Superintelligence Confirmed

7 - Room Temperature Superconductor

8 - Longevity Escape Velocity

The following market:

/SteveSokolowski/will-we-wake-up-in-a-changed-world

demonstrates that humanity has now reached a point where the probability of everyday life being unrecognizable in just one year is surprisingly high.

The market contains full descriptions of the events. Which of the events listed in the market is most probable to occur in 2024?

Market context

Transhumanism

Futurism

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By the way, isn't it amazing that currently the most likely event is that AGI will be achieved?

Most people answering this question would probably thought it laughable that when they were children that they would see the day where a poll shows that.

@SteveSokolowski I grew up on a steady diet of six-fi, I am not surprised at all.

@JimAusman Those sci-fi shows also tend to show a destroyed Earth with deserts from climate change, so I guess that ranking high seems apt. But 1 degree? The biggest change there's ever been I think was 0.2 degrees.

@SteveSokolowski daily reminder that manifold users are an extremely nonrepresentative sample of the general population

Note that "Catastrophic Disaster" in this case means something that kills over 75 million people

@adele That's correct; I hope people notice that. Disasters that kill hundreds of thousands of people occur regularly and would not change daily life. The Ukraine War may be close to a million already.

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