What rare events will happen in March 2024?
193
3K
23K
resolved Apr 10
Resolved
YES
One bitcoin trade on Coinbase Pro, on or before March 31 at 11:59:59pm EDT, equals or exceeds $69,044.77
Resolved
YES
Any question in this market without an asterisk next to its name resolves to YES
Resolved
YES
Two or more questions in this market without asterisks next to their names resolve to YES
Resolved
YES
One bitcoin trade on Coinbase Pro, on or before March 15 at 11:59:59pm EDT, equals or exceeds $69,044.77
Resolved
YES
Someone in the United States is executed
Resolved
YES
Three or more questions in this market without asterisks next to their names resolve to YES, excluding other questions about question counts
Resolved
N/A
A Manifold poll, posted towards the end of March, "Do you like this song?"; with an empty description and answers (YES, NO); will result majority YES for a 100% AI-generated song *
Resolved
NO
A sixteen seed advances to the Final Four in the NCAA men's basketball tournament
Resolved
NO
Nikki Haley is favored to win nomination, on March 31, 2024 at 11:59:59pm EDT
Resolved
NO
@EliezerYudkowsky publicly states or implies he believes human civilization has a 5% or greater chance of surviving AI annihilation
Resolved
NO
The current US President, Vice President, or member of the Cabinet takes the official position that non-human intelligence exists
Resolved
NO
A new virus emerges that is projected to kill at, or greater than, the same rate as the first variant of COVID-19 killed unvaccinated people, despite all available treatments
Resolved
NO
At least one share of nVidia stock is traded for greater than $1,250 during premarket, aftermarket, or normal trading hours, excluding OTC trades
Resolved
NO
Joe Biden is not running for President, on March 31, 2024, at 11:59:59pm EDT
Resolved
NO
An offensive nuclear attack occurs
Resolved
NO
A nuclear meltdown occurs
Resolved
NO
A room-temperature superconductor is proposed and a market on Manifold suggests it has a 25% or greater chance of replication, including markets that already existed
Resolved
NO
China intentionally attacks Taiwan, with the intention of starting a large war
Resolved
NO
Russia and NATO are in armed conflict, on March 31, 2024 at 11:59:59pm EDT
Resolved
NO
Alan's conservative countdown to AGI is greater than or equal to 80% on March 31, 2024 at 11:59:59pm EDT

chris (@strutheo) posts markets covering general happenings. However, he has stated he dislikes questions that are unlikely to occur.

In this market, we'll bet solely on rare events, which I believed to have a 2% chance or less of positive resolution at time of creation. The law of large numbers states that if there are enough independent trials, at least one of these very unlikely questions is bound to resolve to YES!

If an event occurs in February, it resolves to N/A if it cannot occur again in March.

More questions will be added after the existing questions receive bids.


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The poll about music was posted at the following question:

/SteveSokolowski/do-you-like-this-song

and a majority of the voting users liked the song. I had expected that to happen, as most people generally aren't aware about how AI has surpassed humans in most domains already.

@SteveSokolowski That is not correct. 7 of 17 respondents indicated YES. That is a plurality, not a majority. 6 said NO and 4 said they didn't even finish. You should reverse this resolution to NO.

@SteveSokolowski Furthermore, (1) your question stated the poll would "posted towards the end of March". It wasn't.
(2) Your question claimed that the poll would have "an an empty description". It didn't, but rather contained an instruction to listen to the whole song - biasing the results.
(3) Your question claimed that the poll would have "answers (YES, NO)" when in fact it had a third response option. This directly caused the problem.

@SteveSokolowski to add to the previous comments, you're trying to slip in "AI has surpassed humans in most domains". It's hard to see music quality+writing speed as one domain; with other split, humanity is still better.

@HarrisonNathan I don't believe the argument that the poll being posted at the wrong time is valid. The poll was posted towards the end of March - in fact, within a few hours of the exact time of the end of March.

I also don't think that adding a nonresponse option is valid either. It would have been a valid argument if Manifold had a "see results" option, but if such an option isn't provided, people who don't want to vote just click randomly and bias the results.

As to the the argument about the description being empty, that argument is valid, because the question stated otherwise.

However, the resolution is not NO, because one cannot conclude that there actually was any bias. In fact, the poll could have turned out to be more decisive. Therefore, the resolution is N/A.

However, as Manifold does not allow unresolution of questions, there is nothing that can be done here.

@SteveSokolowski Actually I can unresolve it if you want me to

@Joshua Yes, I think you should, but only because of the description not being empty. Because of that, it should be N/A.

We can't re-open a new poll now, because AI music generation has advanced dramatically in the past week, and the availability of Udio may cause people to not like Suno songs by comparison anymore.

The FairlyRandom bot did not output a number upon request, so I used a cryptographically secure random number generator at https://www.gigacalculator.com/calculators/random-number-generator.php, which output 132.

The United Football League fails to play any games

The gun massacre occurred in Russia, not the United States. That's surprising - if a massacre was going to occur anywhere, one would think the US was the place it would happen.

Someone in the United States is executed
Someone in the United States is executed
bought Ṁ30 Someone in the Unite... YES

As expected, the Georgia State Board of Pardons and Paroles, have denied clemency to Willie James Pye.

5 or more noteworthy events at South by Southwest cancelled or postponed for at least one week, reported by a mainstream media outlet

What counts as noteworthy? Would anything from the official schedule?

bought Ṁ5 Alan's conservative ... YES

@pdw Yes. As far as I can tell, there haven't been any of these cancelled.

Announcement that MrBeast will star in a major theatrical motion picture
bought Ṁ100 Announcement that Mr... YES

@SteveSokolowski I think this resolves YES, although it depends on the meaning of the word "star" (is voice acting for a character enough?): https://thedirect.com/article/kung-fu-panda-4-mr-beast-panda-pig-cameo-explained

@SaviorofPlant After looking at this, I don't believe that he is "starring" in this role. To "star" in a movie, the actor needs to have a leading role, not a cameo.

If I misunderstand what his role is and it is larger than I believe, then please let me know. As it stands, I don't think that he could be considered as a star in this movie.

Interestingly, the only rare events so far are Bitcoin related.

The conservative countdown ticked up to 71% yesterday. At that rate, it will hit 79% at the end of the month - and the rate is tracking recent progress in February too.

AGI, according to Alan, will probabably be achieved by September at the latest.

Any question in this market without an asterisk next to its name resolves to YES

Technically, resolutions in April 2024 will not occur in March 2024. Do these resolve NO if you are late to resolve for something that happens in March?

Two or more questions in this market without asterisks next to their names resolve to YES

if a question resolves “yes”, then won’t two questions resolve yes by definition? Bc also “will any question resolve yes” should flip to yes…

@LeeBressler That's why it says "excluding meta questions."

I am editing the questions to correct the text to be more precise. Bettors might receive automatic notifications.

This BTC all-time high is going to be hard. The resistance at that point will be insane, and it's going to come right before the halving.

I think a cup-and-handle is more likely. If it isn't a double-top, then we go back to $42,000 and break through on the second attempt.