chris (@strutheo) posts markets covering general happenings. However, he has stated he dislikes questions that are unlikely to occur.
In this market, we'll bet solely on rare events, which I believed to have a 2% chance or less of positive resolution at time of creation. The law of large numbers states that if there are enough independent trials, at least one of these very unlikely questions is bound to resolve to YES!
If an event occurs in February, it resolves to N/A if it cannot occur again in March.
More questions will be added after the existing questions receive bids.
Other interesting markets (please help me out):
1,000
3.00The poll about music was posted at the following question:
/SteveSokolowski/do-you-like-this-song
and a majority of the voting users liked the song. I had expected that to happen, as most people generally aren't aware about how AI has surpassed humans in most domains already.
@SteveSokolowski That is not correct. 7 of 17 respondents indicated YES. That is a plurality, not a majority. 6 said NO and 4 said they didn't even finish. You should reverse this resolution to NO.
@SteveSokolowski Furthermore, (1) your question stated the poll would "posted towards the end of March". It wasn't.
(2) Your question claimed that the poll would have "an an empty description". It didn't, but rather contained an instruction to listen to the whole song - biasing the results.
(3) Your question claimed that the poll would have "answers (YES, NO)" when in fact it had a third response option. This directly caused the problem.
@SteveSokolowski to add to the previous comments, you're trying to slip in "AI has surpassed humans in most domains". It's hard to see music quality+writing speed as one domain; with other split, humanity is still better.
@HarrisonNathan I don't believe the argument that the poll being posted at the wrong time is valid. The poll was posted towards the end of March - in fact, within a few hours of the exact time of the end of March.
I also don't think that adding a nonresponse option is valid either. It would have been a valid argument if Manifold had a "see results" option, but if such an option isn't provided, people who don't want to vote just click randomly and bias the results.
As to the the argument about the description being empty, that argument is valid, because the question stated otherwise.
However, the resolution is not NO, because one cannot conclude that there actually was any bias. In fact, the poll could have turned out to be more decisive. Therefore, the resolution is N/A.
However, as Manifold does not allow unresolution of questions, there is nothing that can be done here.
@Joshua Yes, I think you should, but only because of the description not being empty. Because of that, it should be N/A.
We can't re-open a new poll now, because AI music generation has advanced dramatically in the past week, and the availability of Udio may cause people to not like Suno songs by comparison anymore.
The FairlyRandom bot did not output a number upon request, so I used a cryptographically secure random number generator at https://www.gigacalculator.com/calculators/random-number-generator.php, which output 132.
Execution carried out 40mins ago
@SteveSokolowski I think this resolves YES, although it depends on the meaning of the word "star" (is voice acting for a character enough?): https://thedirect.com/article/kung-fu-panda-4-mr-beast-panda-pig-cameo-explained
@SaviorofPlant After looking at this, I don't believe that he is "starring" in this role. To "star" in a movie, the actor needs to have a leading role, not a cameo.
If I misunderstand what his role is and it is larger than I believe, then please let me know. As it stands, I don't think that he could be considered as a star in this movie.