What rare events will happen in March 2024?
Standard
193
Ṁ110k
resolved Apr 10
Resolved
YES
Someone in the United States is executed
Resolved
YES
Three or more questions in this market without asterisks next to their names resolve to YES, excluding other questions about question counts
Resolved
YES
Any question in this market without an asterisk next to its name resolves to YES
Resolved
YES
One bitcoin trade on Coinbase Pro, on or before March 31 at 11:59:59pm EDT, equals or exceeds $69,044.77
Resolved
YES
Two or more questions in this market without asterisks next to their names resolve to YES
Resolved
YES
One bitcoin trade on Coinbase Pro, on or before March 15 at 11:59:59pm EDT, equals or exceeds $69,044.77
Resolved
N/A
A Manifold poll, posted towards the end of March, "Do you like this song?"; with an empty description and answers (YES, NO); will result majority YES for a 100% AI-generated song *
Resolved
NO
5 or more noteworthy events at South by Southwest cancelled or postponed for at least one week, reported by a mainstream media outlet
Resolved
NO
@EliezerYudkowsky, an idea uniquely attributed to him, or a term he created, is mentioned in the State of the Union address or its response
Resolved
NO
On March 31, 2024 at 11:59:59pm EDT, Donald Trump owes $0 to the State of New York for his civil judgements; having either paid them in full or placed the full amount in escrow pending appeal
Resolved
NO
A League of Legends support records a pentakill in professional play
Resolved
NO
Joe Biden mentions non-human intelligence (as defined in the text of the original version of the UAP Disclosure Act) during the State of the Union address
Resolved
NO
Freedive with constant weight of 134m officially recognized
Resolved
NO
Barry Silbert is arrested
Resolved
NO
Inflation in Turkey falls below 30.00%
Resolved
NO
A sixteen seed advances to the Final Four in the NCAA men's basketball tournament
Resolved
NO
@EliezerYudkowsky publicly states or implies he believes human civilization has a 5% or greater chance of surviving AI annihilation
Resolved
NO
At least one share of nVidia stock is traded for greater than $1,250 during premarket, aftermarket, or normal trading hours, excluding OTC trades
Resolved
NO
Alan's conservative countdown to AGI is greater than or equal to 80% on March 31, 2024 at 11:59:59pm EDT
Resolved
NO
Temperature of 86F recorded in Central Park in nyc

chris (@strutheo) posts markets covering general happenings. However, he has stated he dislikes questions that are unlikely to occur.

In this market, we'll bet solely on rare events, which I believed to have a 2% chance or less of positive resolution at time of creation. The law of large numbers states that if there are enough independent trials, at least one of these very unlikely questions is bound to resolve to YES!

If an event occurs in February, it resolves to N/A if it cannot occur again in March.

More questions will be added after the existing questions receive bids.


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The poll about music was posted at the following question:

/SteveSokolowski/do-you-like-this-song

and a majority of the voting users liked the song. I had expected that to happen, as most people generally aren't aware about how AI has surpassed humans in most domains already.

@SteveSokolowski That is not correct. 7 of 17 respondents indicated YES. That is a plurality, not a majority. 6 said NO and 4 said they didn't even finish. You should reverse this resolution to NO.

@SteveSokolowski Furthermore, (1) your question stated the poll would "posted towards the end of March". It wasn't.
(2) Your question claimed that the poll would have "an an empty description". It didn't, but rather contained an instruction to listen to the whole song - biasing the results.
(3) Your question claimed that the poll would have "answers (YES, NO)" when in fact it had a third response option. This directly caused the problem.

@SteveSokolowski to add to the previous comments, you're trying to slip in "AI has surpassed humans in most domains". It's hard to see music quality+writing speed as one domain; with other split, humanity is still better.

@HarrisonNathan I don't believe the argument that the poll being posted at the wrong time is valid. The poll was posted towards the end of March - in fact, within a few hours of the exact time of the end of March.

I also don't think that adding a nonresponse option is valid either. It would have been a valid argument if Manifold had a "see results" option, but if such an option isn't provided, people who don't want to vote just click randomly and bias the results.

As to the the argument about the description being empty, that argument is valid, because the question stated otherwise.

However, the resolution is not NO, because one cannot conclude that there actually was any bias. In fact, the poll could have turned out to be more decisive. Therefore, the resolution is N/A.

However, as Manifold does not allow unresolution of questions, there is nothing that can be done here.

@SteveSokolowski Actually I can unresolve it if you want me to

@Joshua Yes, I think you should, but only because of the description not being empty. Because of that, it should be N/A.

We can't re-open a new poll now, because AI music generation has advanced dramatically in the past week, and the availability of Udio may cause people to not like Suno songs by comparison anymore.

The FairlyRandom bot did not output a number upon request, so I used a cryptographically secure random number generator at https://www.gigacalculator.com/calculators/random-number-generator.php, which output 132.

The gun massacre occurred in Russia, not the United States. That's surprising - if a massacre was going to occur anywhere, one would think the US was the place it would happen.

Someone in the United States is executed
Someone in the United States is executed
bought Ṁ30 Someone in the Unite... YES

As expected, the Georgia State Board of Pardons and Paroles, have denied clemency to Willie James Pye.

5 or more noteworthy events at South by Southwest cancelled or postponed for at least one week, reported by a mainstream media outlet

What counts as noteworthy? Would anything from the official schedule?

bought Ṁ5 Alan's conservative ... YES

@pdw Yes. As far as I can tell, there haven't been any of these cancelled.

bought Ṁ100 Answer #328c8f081005 YES

@SteveSokolowski I think this resolves YES, although it depends on the meaning of the word "star" (is voice acting for a character enough?): https://thedirect.com/article/kung-fu-panda-4-mr-beast-panda-pig-cameo-explained

@SaviorofPlant After looking at this, I don't believe that he is "starring" in this role. To "star" in a movie, the actor needs to have a leading role, not a cameo.

If I misunderstand what his role is and it is larger than I believe, then please let me know. As it stands, I don't think that he could be considered as a star in this movie.

Interestingly, the only rare events so far are Bitcoin related.

The conservative countdown ticked up to 71% yesterday. At that rate, it will hit 79% at the end of the month - and the rate is tracking recent progress in February too.

AGI, according to Alan, will probabably be achieved by September at the latest.

Any question in this market without an asterisk next to its name resolves to YES

Technically, resolutions in April 2024 will not occur in March 2024. Do these resolve NO if you are late to resolve for something that happens in March?

Two or more questions in this market without asterisks next to their names resolve to YES

if a question resolves “yes”, then won’t two questions resolve yes by definition? Bc also “will any question resolve yes” should flip to yes…

@LeeBressler That's why it says "excluding meta questions."

I am editing the questions to correct the text to be more precise. Bettors might receive automatic notifications.

This BTC all-time high is going to be hard. The resistance at that point will be insane, and it's going to come right before the halving.

I think a cup-and-handle is more likely. If it isn't a double-top, then we go back to $42,000 and break through on the second attempt.

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