What rare events will happen in March 2024?

193

23kṀ110k

resolved Apr 10

Resolved

YES

Someone in the United States is executed

Resolved

YES

Three or more questions in this market without asterisks next to their names resolve to YES, excluding other questions about question counts

Resolved

YES

Any question in this market without an asterisk next to its name resolves to YES

Resolved

YES

One bitcoin trade on Coinbase Pro, on or before March 31 at 11:59:59pm EDT, equals or exceeds $69,044.77

Resolved

YES

Two or more questions in this market without asterisks next to their names resolve to YES

Resolved

YES

One bitcoin trade on Coinbase Pro, on or before March 15 at 11:59:59pm EDT, equals or exceeds $69,044.77

Resolved

N/A

A Manifold poll, posted towards the end of March, "Do you like this song?"; with an empty description and answers (YES, NO); will result majority YES for a 100% AI-generated song *

Resolved

5 or more noteworthy events at South by Southwest cancelled or postponed for at least one week, reported by a mainstream media outlet

Resolved

@EliezerYudkowsky, an idea uniquely attributed to him, or a term he created, is mentioned in the State of the Union address or its response

Resolved

On March 31, 2024 at 11:59:59pm EDT, Donald Trump owes $0 to the State of New York for his civil judgements; having either paid them in full or placed the full amount in escrow pending appeal

Resolved

A League of Legends support records a pentakill in professional play

Resolved

Joe Biden mentions non-human intelligence (as defined in the text of the original version of the UAP Disclosure Act) during the State of the Union address

Resolved

Freedive with constant weight of 134m officially recognized

Resolved

Barry Silbert is arrested

Resolved

Inflation in Turkey falls below 30.00%

Resolved

A sixteen seed advances to the Final Four in the NCAA men's basketball tournament

Resolved

@EliezerYudkowsky publicly states or implies he believes human civilization has a 5% or greater chance of surviving AI annihilation

Resolved

At least one share of nVidia stock is traded for greater than $1,250 during premarket, aftermarket, or normal trading hours, excluding OTC trades

Resolved

Alan's conservative countdown to AGI is greater than or equal to 80% on March 31, 2024 at 11:59:59pm EDT

Resolved

Temperature of 86F recorded in Central Park in nyc

chris (@strutheo) posts markets covering general happenings. However, he has stated he dislikes questions that are unlikely to occur.

In this market, we'll bet solely on rare events, which I believed to have a 2% chance or less of positive resolution at time of creation. The law of large numbers states that if there are enough independent trials, at least one of these very unlikely questions is bound to resolve to YES!

If an event occurs in February, it resolves to N/A if it cannot occur again in March.

More questions will be added after the existing questions receive bids.

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