Resolution criteria

This has nothing to do with what actually happens, only his words. This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump publicly declares that we have achieved a victory over Iran. The declaration must be reported by at least two reputable news organizations. If no such declaration is made by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

In June 2025, Israel conducted extensive airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, actions that were reportedly known to the U.S. in advance. President Trump praised these strikes as "excellent" and "very successful," urging Iran to negotiate over its nuclear program to avoid further military action. Additionally, Trump has reinstated the "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran, aiming to compel Tehran to negotiate a new nuclear agreement

Considerations

Trump's public statements have varied, oscillating between threats and calls for diplomacy. His base is divided over potential U.S. involvement in Middle Eastern conflicts, with some supporters advocating for non-interventionist policies. These factors may influence whether he will claim a definitive victory over Iran.