This is an attempt at quantifying this question on Lesswrong.

Resolves YES if Rishi Sunak leaves office in the next 3 years and within 6 months there is a substantial budget cut to the Frontier Taskforce (50% or greater).
Resolves NO if Rishi Sunak leaves office in the next 3 years and within 6 months there is no substantial budget cuts to the Frontier Taskforce.

To resolve YES or NO, it is required that Rishi Sunak leaves office before midnight of October 28 2026 (GMT) and there is enough publically available data about the Frontier Taskforce's budget.