Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Google Gemini has more monthly active users (MAU) than ChatGPT by December 31, 2025. Resolution will be based on official announcements from Google and OpenAI regarding their respective MAU figures. If official figures are unavailable, resolution will be determined by the most recent credible third-party reports from market research firms (e.g., Sensor Tower, Statista).

Background

As of Q3 2025, Gemini has 650 million monthly active users, while ChatGPT's global monthly active users reached roughly 810 million as of November 2025. Gemini's global monthly active users jumped by around 30% from August to November 2025, driven by the release of its Nano Banana image generation model. In contrast, ChatGPT's monthly active users only grew by around 6% from August to November. ChatGPT has seen 180% year-over-year growth while Gemini's monthly active users are up 170% year-over-year as of November 2025.

Considerations

The metrics being compared are monthly active users (MAU), which differ from weekly active users or daily active users. ChatGPT currently accounts for 55% of global monthly active users across major AI chatbots, while Gemini holds a smaller share. However, Gemini has begun to outpace ChatGPT in terms of download growth, growth of monthly active users, and growth of time spent in app, and over time that increased pace of adoption could help Gemini narrow the gap. The gap between the two platforms as of late November 2025 is approximately 160 million MAU, with only about 5 weeks remaining in the year.