It resolves YES if they get something as good as Sora.
Since we do not yet have a good benchmark for judging, we will resolve to public opinions, like a poll on manifolds.
Note: the company/organization, not the location, judges the nationality. For example, if Huawei Tel Aviv lab makes something good, it will resolve this question to YES. In comparison, if MSRA makes something, it does not count.
Update 2026-03-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will use the artificialanalysis.ai text-to-video arena leaderboard as a reference for judging whether a Chinese company's model is as good as Sora.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ461 | |
| 2 | Ṁ354 | |
| 3 | Ṁ77 | |
| 4 | Ṁ77 | |
| 5 | Ṁ49 |
People are also trading
@Sss19971997 I think it would be most reasonable to go off of this:
https://artificialanalysis.ai/text-to-video/arena?tab=Leaderboard
They're very nearly as good as sora. but clearly it's statistically significant that they aren't as good according to users.
@traders You know what, the margin is small enough that I think I need to do a poll on manifolds. I will consider resolving YES if the poll is statistically significant (p-value < 0.05), but not guarantee.